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Thread: Keeper Dilemma

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
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    Keeper Dilemma

    I have a tough call this year. My league's keeper rules are a little complex, and I won't go into great detail on that, but here's my situation...we keep 2 players:

    I'm gonna keep Zac Stacy with a 9th round pick.

    I'm choosing between Arian Foster with a late 3rd round pick and Julius Thomas with a 17th round pick. Some things to consider:

    I cannot keep Foster beyond this year, whereas Thomas I could keep next year with a 16, the following year a 14, then 10, and then a 2. So, Thomas could essentially be a free player for 4 years running.

    Expected players available with my late 3rd pick would include dudes like Welker, Cruz, Ellington, Trent Richardson. Based on ESPN draft results anyway. So, in a sense I'm looking at Thomas + one of those guys vs. Foster.

    I also traded away my current 7th and 11th round picks last year (it was worth it, I won), so depth could be an issue for me, which makes Thomas +1 slightly more enticing than it would otherwise be.

    Thoughts? What would you do?

  2. #2
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    I would agonize over the decision more than I probably should if I were you but in the end I would end up keeping Foster each and every time.

    The chances of Foster recovering and being the player he was before this injury are what? 25%? 50%? And that is being pretty pessimistic.

    Well for me one good season of a top 5 RB is easily worth 4 seasons of a good but not great TE like Thomas. If I thought that the chances of Thomas could ever be a Jimmy Graham type of difference maker, I would change my mind but I just see him as a solid TE playing with in an elite passing offense with a great QB (a good QB who might not be there as soon as next season).

  3. #3
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    I think I go Thomas. Last year, Thomas barely had a grasp on Peyton's offense and has really studied (supposedly) over the offseason and should have a full grasp of it now, meaning he should play an even bigger part in the offense than he did last season. Foster (or an equivolent) may be available to you with that 3rd round pick, but there's no way a top 5 TE will be available in the 17th unless you get super lucky.

    Also, it helps to include your scoring system and starting lineup requirements. It may make a difference.
    As cliche as it may sound, I'd like to raise another round, and if your bottle's empty help yourself to mine, thank you for your time and here's to life.

  4. #4
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    Based on the information we have, I'd keep Thomas in this situation. Granted I'm pretty bearish on Foster.
    "Personal foul, 69, offense. He was giving him the business."

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by femurov View Post
    I think I go Thomas. Last year, Thomas barely had a grasp on Peyton's offense and has really studied (supposedly) over the offseason and should have a full grasp of it now, meaning he should play an even bigger part in the offense than he did last season. Foster (or an equivolent) may be available to you with that 3rd round pick, but there's no way a top 5 TE will be available in the 17th unless you get super lucky.

    Also, it helps to include your scoring system and starting lineup requirements. It may make a difference.
    Sorry, forgot to include that info. League is pretty standard, no PPR, the usual 1 point for 10 yards, 6 for a TD. We start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex. We did make a change in the offseason to allow a TE into the flex spot, but I can't imagine that being much of a factor.

    I agree with you on Thomas...I do think he'll put up more yards this year, though maybe not more TDs.

    But there's no way Foster is around by my 3rd round pick; he'll almost certainly gone by my 1st pick, which is #9. Consider that there will already be 20 players plucked from the player pool, so player drop off by 3rd round is fairly drastic.

    Thanks to everyone so far for their input.

  6. #6
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    Why not Foster and Thomas?

    Zac Stacy...I ain't high on him..the Rams keep changing out their #1 RB every year...
    "I would not join any club that would have someone like me for a member." - Groucho Marx

  7. #7
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    I would keep Thomas in this situation. I love foster for what he did at his peak, but the list of fantasy studs who fell off a cliff and were never the same is long and storied, while the list of studs who spent multiple years slowed by injuries and then were amazing again is much shorter.

    I like hyped's point, too, but in the end I'm not sure Stacy is quite as disposable as Richardson, so I probably keep him and let foster go.
    Tall, Dorky, and Ham-handed

  8. #8
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    Thomas is a clear cut keeper in this situation based on cost alone. I wouldn't trust anyone telling you otherwise. The question should be between the other two.

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