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  1. #1
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    Odell Beckham and the WR class

    Just looking over the mock draft in the mock forum I cant believe Odell Beckham fell to the 3rd.

    Looking over the metrics on Rotoworld he is the best deep threat in the draft. And it's not even close. His route tree is far and away better than any other WR and he gets separation from beating his man on routes not on screens like some of the top guys.

    I think he is a legit late 1st, early 2nd round talent.

    Striking though, is the fact that Odell Beckham caught 62% of balls thrown to him past 10 yards. Beckham is clearly the deep threat here while Landry shows a tendency toward more intermediate passes
    - If we want to advance a pretty strong narrative we can put Jarvis Landry in the ‘possession receiver’ bucket where 36% of his receptions were on hard breaking in/out routes and another 33% were on slants and posts/corners. He does have a wide range of route running experience which is really a positive.
    - Odell Beckham, like Landry, has a wide variety of route running experience (and runs those routes well) which should translate nicely to the NFL.
    http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...-wr-metrics-20

    -If you want a guy to throw quick hitters and screens to make him get YAC draft Watkins
    -If you want a monster WR to beat his man 1 on 1 downfield draft Evans or Benjamin
    -If you want a classic WCO WR draft Lee
    -If you want a scary deep threat draft Beckham
    -If you want a nice possession receiver draft Landry, Matthews or Robinson
    -If you want a nice 3rd WR/slot guy draft Cooks

    A few things, watch out for

    -Matthews and Lee's hands. They dropped ALOT of balls
    -Cooks lack of YAC is alarming
    -57.43% of Watkins catches came on screens
    -Only 3.51% of Lee's catches came past 20 yards
    -Evans has caught the highest percentage of receptions past 20 yards amongst the top 15 WRs in this class
    -25% of Benjamin’s receptions came on throws deeper than 20 yards
    -30.77% of Landry's catches came between 6-10 yards
    -44.83% of Beckham's catches came between 11-20 yards
    -Landry only dropped 2 balls all season

    I think if I had to rank them:

    1- Mike Evans (legit #1 WR. Big play after big play. Best overall WR in this draft IMO)
    2- Kelvin Benjamin (legit #1 WR. Monster WR who will outmuscle his CB downfield. )
    3- Sammy Watkins (legit YAC #1. Get the ball to him in the screen game and he is scary. A smaller Demarius Thomas)
    4- Marquise Lee (Nice #2. Hands are a big concern. Doesn't offer much downfield. Ideal WCO WR)
    5- Odell Beckham (Legit deep threat)
    6- Jarvis Landry (Ideal #2 possession WR. Best hands in the draft)
    7- Allen Robinson (Good move the chains guy)
    8- Jordan Matthews (See above. Not very explosive)
    9- Brandin Cooks (Nice slot WR. Not a great YAC guy but will rack up the intermediate catches)
    10- Davante Adams (Lots of talent. Maybe best as a #3. Route running? )
    Last edited by Sakic19; 02-01-2014 at 03:06 PM.
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  2. #2
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    It is a deep wr draft and Beckham is a tad short.

  3. #3
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    Beckham is going to be a great NFL WR, IMO. He runs the best routes of any WR in this class, offers the added dimension of KR/PR, is a willing blocker, goes over the middle, and he has GREAT hands. In terms of size, speed, and route running he reminds me of Tim Brown.

  4. #4
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    Reminds me of Randall Cobb myself who I had as the 15th-20th best player in his draft. My Lions took Titus Young instead.....
    "Governing doesn’t disappear when government shrinks; instead corporations come to govern your life — like HMO’s, oil companies, drug companies, agribusiness, and so on, with accountability only to maximizing profit, not to public needs." - George Lakoff

  5. #5
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    I think Beckham Jr has a better chance of being a late 1st than lasting til the 3rd. As things stand, I'd be pretty happy with him as the Browns' 2nd rounder if he's there. That said, I have to disagree with him having "GREAT hands." If anything, that's probably his biggest weakness. (I don't really see his size as a weakness for his skill set)

    Watkins is the "great hands" WR in this class. He catches the ball with his hands as well as anyone in recent years.

    Evans can be dominant, but he vanishes too much for a WR of his ability.

    Lee had a down year, but I kinda think he got bored. College WRs don't put up the numbers he did as a Fresh/Soph in "regular" offenses. It just doesn't happen. Very underrated by some at this point. No way Benjamin should go above him. He's better in quite literally every way imaginable except size.

    Benjamin has the physical ability, but he's so raw. His hands are concerning. I still think he made a mistake coming out this year.
    Last edited by Xulu Bak; 02-07-2014 at 09:27 PM.

  6. #6
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    Yah, Lee has become underrated. He's not that different a prospect than Watkins. Watkins has better hands, but I'm fine with Lee's. A good combine will probably wake people back up a little. For some reference, he's hands down a better prospect than Tavon Austin, who went top 10 last year.

    I'd be scared to take Evans too high. Not if I'm a rebuilding team looking for him to be my #1 particularly. For Detroit or a similar situation, I'd be more tempted to gamble on him. If you can't put a safety over the top of that guy, because someone like Calvin Johnson is across the field, he's going to make a lot of big plays downfield. Todd Mcshay called him the best 50-50 ball WR in 5 years and I might have to agree with him. He's at least in the mix.

    Agreed on both Benjamin and Beckham. I think Beckham would look great opposite Gordon, even at 26. Benjamin scares the hell out of me. He has some Reggie Williams in him.
    "Governing doesn’t disappear when government shrinks; instead corporations come to govern your life — like HMO’s, oil companies, drug companies, agribusiness, and so on, with accountability only to maximizing profit, not to public needs." - George Lakoff

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Todd Mcshay called him the best 50-50 ball WR in 5 years and I might have to agree with him. He's at least in the mix.
    Well, I disagree with both of you on that. If anything, I don't think Evans uses his size as well as he should at times. I think that's one area Benjamin is better than him, which is at least partially due to overall athleticism, but neither is on Julio's level.

    The rookie wage scale changes the dynamics a bit, but I think Benjamin made a mistake coming out early. He clearly has the physical ability, but he's so raw and inconsistent, I could see him struggling to get on the field to develop (he wouldn't be the first). I think another year of development at FSU would have served him well, and could have propelled him to a potential top 5 pick next year.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raider Nation View Post
    Beckham is going to be a great NFL WR, IMO. He runs the best routes of any WR in this class, offers the added dimension of KR/PR, is a willing blocker, goes over the middle, and he has GREAT hands. In terms of size, speed, and route running he reminds me of Tim Brown.
    So if Beckham happens to be there at #36 overall, you're banging the table and hoping Reggie hears you, amirite?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Play4Blood View Post
    So if Beckham happens to be there at #36 overall, you're banging the table and hoping Reggie hears you, amirite?

    If he doesn't take Watkins at #5? Yeah, I'd love me Beckham at #36.

  10. #10
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    Beckham has first round talent and is a stud. He has really good hands, runs quick sharp routes, displays great leaping ability and snatches the ball away from the defender, possess great deep speed along, quick and laterally explosive, and he's a lot tougher than his size like Randall Cobb. A team like the Browns, Niners, Patriots would all be smart to take a hard look at this kid with their late first rounders.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xulu Bak View Post
    Evans can be dominant, but he vanishes too much for a WR of his ability.
    You can blame his quarterback for that.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
    Yah, Lee has become underrated. He's not that different a prospect than Watkins. Watkins has better hands, but I'm fine with Lee's. A good combine will probably wake people back up a little. For some reference, he's hands down a better prospect than Tavon Austin, who went top 10 last year.

    I'd be scared to take Evans too high. Not if I'm a rebuilding team looking for him to be my #1 particularly. For Detroit or a similar situation, I'd be more tempted to gamble on him. If you can't put a safety over the top of that guy, because someone like Calvin Johnson is across the field, he's going to make a lot of big plays downfield. Todd Mcshay called him the best 50-50 ball WR in 5 years and I might have to agree with him. He's at least in the mix.

    Agreed on both Benjamin and Beckham. I think Beckham would look great opposite Gordon, even at 26. Benjamin scares the hell out of me. He has some Reggie Williams in him.
    Best in 5 years is surely hyperbole. AJ Green only came out in 2011. I hate when people do that. Usually though they only ignore the great prospects that didn't pan out. Green was not only the best overall (and deep threat WR) since Calvin Johnson, he has also already turned out to be probably the second or third best in the league.

  13. #13
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    Green and Evans aren't close as prospects, but its not ridiculous to suggest that Evans has an equal or better chance of coming down with a straight 50/50 ball IMO.
    "Governing doesn’t disappear when government shrinks; instead corporations come to govern your life — like HMO’s, oil companies, drug companies, agribusiness, and so on, with accountability only to maximizing profit, not to public needs." - George Lakoff

  14. #14
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    AJ green and Larry Fitzgerald are the two best prospects I have ever seen at that. Obviously Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson are two guys that were better as pros than they showed in college. But I would have a hard time putting Evans on anywhere near the same level for that.

  15. #15
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    Not sure what you mean about Moss. He was the best I saw as a prospect or player. I'm not even a huge Evans fan, but I think he's elite in that one area.
    "Governing doesn’t disappear when government shrinks; instead corporations come to govern your life — like HMO’s, oil companies, drug companies, agribusiness, and so on, with accountability only to maximizing profit, not to public needs." - George Lakoff

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