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Thread: Playoff Picture

  1. #1
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    Playoff Picture

    Pretty much the AFC playoff picture is set except for the AFC North Division, AFC West Division, and 6th Seed WC spot.

    AFC West

    Denver is a game ahead of KC and also beat them twice. So Denver really has a 2 game lead and they'll be heavily favored in their last 4 games. KC is reeling losing 3 straight, but 2 are against perhaps the top seed in the AFC. KC does have 3 of the lat 4 on the road, but they also have a 3 game lead in the 1st WC race and although they have 3 Rd games they should be favored over Washington, Oakland, and Indy. Playing in SD may e the only game hey aren't favored and that's the last game of the season.

    AFC North

    Cincinnati has a 2 game lead on Baltimore and 3 game lead on Pittsburgh. Baltimore should have an easy win his week against Minnesota at home, but after that they're at Detroit, Home versus New England, and @ Cincinnati. Cincinnati's schedule is also not exactly easy playing Indy, @Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and then ending with Baltimore at home. Pittsburgh has by far the easiest schedule of the 3 playing 3 home games versus Miami, Cincinnati, & Cleveland while playing Green Bay who may not have Rodgers on the road. While I believe we have the easiest schedule we're just too far back to jump both Cincinnati and Baltimore.

    AFC Wildcard

    As already stated the loer in the AFC West, Likely Kansas City, is a shoe in for the top WC spot. That leaves only the final WC spot up for grabs with 6 teams vying for that 1 spot. Baltimore and Miami both have a leg up with 6-6 records while Tennessee, San Diego, Pittsburgh, & the NYJ all hanging round at 5-7. Looking at the teams:


    Baltimore
    I've laid out Baltimore's schedule above. They have a very tough schedule and I can't see them winning out. I also don't see them losing out. So they could go anywhere from 1-3 to 3-1. With Cincinnati 2 games up on us I'm hoping they take care of business week 17 beating Baltimore.

    Miami
    Miami plays a lot of close games, but has been hurt bad on the OL with the big scandal and being down 2 starters. They have games against New England & the NYJ at home with games at Pittsburgh and Buffalo. This weeks game will go a long way of keeping Pittsburgh in the WC race or knocking us out.

    NYJ
    Talk about a team reeling. Today they actually benched the QB and they've lost 3 straight and 4 of the last 5. They have home games versus both Oakland and Cleveland with tough road games versus Miami and Carolina. Pittsburgh eat them so if they end up tied Pittsburgh owns the TB on them.

    Tennessee
    Don't really hear a lot about Tennessee, but they're right in it. Although you have to think they lose this upcoming week on the road at Denver which will put them at least 2 games back with 3 to go. Although the last 3 they play Arizona at home, Jacksonville on the Rd, before ending at home versus Houston. Even with Arizona playing much better those are 3 very winnable games. I just have to wonder if they lose this week at Denver do they mail in being 2 games back with 3 games left. They beat Pittsburgh week 1 and own the TB with us.

    San Diego
    Tough schedule remaining, but they've been playing pretty good and with Rivers playing well they could upset anyone. They have a home game against a NY Giant team that has been playing better. They then go on the road to Denver a team they've lost to this season already. They end with 2 home games versus Oakland and then a KC team that could rest a lot of players already being locked into to the 5th playoff seed.

    Pittsburgh
    i touched on Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but that was more about the Division and not the WC spot. We have as good a shot as the other team I mentioned here, but with losses to Tennessee and a not so good conference record we pretty much have to win out and end with a 9-7 record. We could get in with an 8-8 schedule, but everything would have to break perfect and without question we'd have to win this week and the only loss we could have would be out of conference versus Green Bay. Pretty much we should know what are chances are after this weeks game at home versus Miami and next weeks versus Cincinnati. We win those 2 and at worse we're likely tied for the final WC spot with Tennessee and maybe Baltimore & Miami going into the last 2 weeks. Baltimore would still have Cincinnati to play while Miami & Tennessee will both be favored in those 2 remaining games.

    If we win out and everything goes as I see it we'll be in a 3 way tie with Miami and Tennessee at 9-7 with all 3 teams having 7-5 conference records with us beating Miami and Tennessee beating us. I have no idea what the TB is between 3 teams after conference record. Of course this only happens if we win out and everything else goes as expected which let be honest never happens in the NFL. Now that I wrote this we'll lose this week to Miami and I'd have wasted all this time.

  2. #2
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    Yeah, now its Baltimore's race to lose. Next week against the Fins will tell the tale for us. Win and we are still alive. Lose and "see ya next year". Other than SD, we are probably the best 5-7 team out there but that and a buck and a half will get you a cup of coffee. Sounds like the Pack might sit Rogers the rest of the year so it's conceivable we go 3-1 with wins over the Fins, Pack and Clowns mixed in with a loss to the Bungs. I wouldn't bet on any outcomes this year but I can't see this inconsistent team winning out.

  3. #3
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    need to win out and get help along the way....

    friggin losing to Tenn/Oak/Minn.....

    grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
    The Leafies are Scumbags.

  4. #4
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    We also lost to the Titans at home when they spotted us 2 points and a possession as soon as the game started.

  5. #5
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    Pittsburgh couldn't afford to lose any more AFC games. They're pretty much toast now.
    "I'm like a hungry piranha with a capybara on it's period in the water..."

    - westcoast

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    It's Seattle v. ???? in the Super Bowl now. Likely with home field advantage throughout, and no-one will beat the Seabags in the Emerald City. They've always been tough up there but now they've got the team to back it up.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddler View Post
    It's Seattle v. ???? in the Super Bowl now. Likely with home field advantage throughout, and no-one will beat the Seabags in the Emerald City. They've always been tough up there but now they've got the team to back it up.
    I wouldn't guarantee Seattle in the SB. No doubt they have a big advantage at home, but there are 2 team that IMO are dangerous to them even at home. San Francisco and Carolina both are tough defensively and neither will be scared playing Seattle in Seattle. I give both those teams a shot at knocking them off at home. It's those teams that don't play much defense that won't eat them at home. Dallas, Philly, Detroit, and as you seen last night New Orleans have no shot to win in Seattle.

  8. #8
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    According to the Football Outsiders in ESPN insider believe it or not the Steelers are still odds on favorite for the 6th Playoff seed in the AFC.

    No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers

    Current record: 5-7 | Weighted DVOA: 3.4 percent
    Projected wins: 7.5
    Total playoff odds: 30.9 percent | Weekly change: -7.3 percent

    Wait, what? Pittsburgh is a game behind Miami and Baltimore in the standings, but Football Outsiders has them as the projected No. 6 seed? As hard as it is to believe that the Steelers are (ever-so-slight) favorites to make the playoffs right now, our simulations like them for three reasons. First, despite their loss to Baltimore last week, Pittsburgh has a better DVOA than Baltimore and Miami. Second, the Steelers (minus-6.1 percent DVOA) have an easier average opponent than the Ravens (6.3 percent) and Dolphins (0.5 percent) over the next month. Third, Pittsburgh has three home games remaining, whereas the Ravens and Dolphins only have two each.

    Miami Dolphins | 6-6 | Total playoff odds: 28.5 percent
    Baltimore Ravens | 6-6 | Total playoff odds: 28.2 percent
    Tennessee Titans | 5-7 | Total playoff odds: 5.9 percent

  9. #9
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    Not a Moneyball type statfreak - what does DVOA stand for?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lofaw View Post
    I wouldn't guarantee Seattle in the SB. No doubt they have a big advantage at home, but there are 2 team that IMO are dangerous to them even at home. San Francisco and Carolina both are tough defensively and neither will be scared playing Seattle in Seattle. I give both those teams a shot at knocking them off at home. It's those teams that don't play much defense that won't eat them at home. Dallas, Philly, Detroit, and as you seen last night New Orleans have no shot to win in Seattle.
    Watching the game on Monday reminded me of the Steelers losing to the a Colts the year we ended up winning the SB. Returned to Indy in the divisional round, beat the Colts, then Denver in the AFC Championship game, and Seattle in XL. Know I am in the minority, but I could see a repeat this year. NO is not 27 points worse than SEA. They'll learn from this and give them a game (dare I say win) should they return. Would be nuts if they got passed by the Panthers and came in from the 6th seed too.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddler View Post
    Not a Moneyball type statfreak - what does DVOA stand for?
    Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
    "I'm like a hungry piranha with a capybara on it's period in the water..."

    - westcoast

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThinMan View Post
    Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
    is that within 1 or 2 standard deviations?: juggle2:

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by HYN_Steel_fan View Post
    Watching the game on Monday reminded me of the Steelers losing to the a Colts the year we ended up winning the SB. Returned to Indy in the divisional round, beat the Colts, then Denver in the AFC Championship game, and Seattle in XL. Know I am in the minority, but I could see a repeat this year. NO is not 27 points worse than SEA. They'll learn from this and give them a game (dare I say win) should they return. Would be nuts if they got passed by the Panthers and came in from the 6th seed too.
    Someone on talk radio was talking about how this season could line up to mirror 2005. 2005 Steelers had to win their last 4 to slip into the playoffs as the 6th seed. Went on the road to beat Bengals, Manning's colts and then Denver. Played the NFC #1 seed Seahawks in the Superbowl.

    Stranger things have happened.

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