Pretty much the AFC playoff picture is set except for the AFC North Division, AFC West Division, and 6th Seed WC spot.
Denver is a game ahead of KC and also beat them twice. So Denver really has a 2 game lead and they'll be heavily favored in their last 4 games. KC is reeling losing 3 straight, but 2 are against perhaps the top seed in the AFC. KC does have 3 of the lat 4 on the road, but they also have a 3 game lead in the 1st WC race and although they have 3 Rd games they should be favored over Washington, Oakland, and Indy. Playing in SD may e the only game hey aren't favored and that's the last game of the season.
Cincinnati has a 2 game lead on Baltimore and 3 game lead on Pittsburgh. Baltimore should have an easy win his week against Minnesota at home, but after that they're at Detroit, Home versus New England, and @ Cincinnati. Cincinnati's schedule is also not exactly easy playing Indy, @Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and then ending with Baltimore at home. Pittsburgh has by far the easiest schedule of the 3 playing 3 home games versus Miami, Cincinnati, & Cleveland while playing Green Bay who may not have Rodgers on the road. While I believe we have the easiest schedule we're just too far back to jump both Cincinnati and Baltimore.
As already stated the loer in the AFC West, Likely Kansas City, is a shoe in for the top WC spot. That leaves only the final WC spot up for grabs with 6 teams vying for that 1 spot. Baltimore and Miami both have a leg up with 6-6 records while Tennessee, San Diego, Pittsburgh, & the NYJ all hanging round at 5-7. Looking at the teams:
I've laid out Baltimore's schedule above. They have a very tough schedule and I can't see them winning out. I also don't see them losing out. So they could go anywhere from 1-3 to 3-1. With Cincinnati 2 games up on us I'm hoping they take care of business week 17 beating Baltimore.
Miami plays a lot of close games, but has been hurt bad on the OL with the big scandal and being down 2 starters. They have games against New England & the NYJ at home with games at Pittsburgh and Buffalo. This weeks game will go a long way of keeping Pittsburgh in the WC race or knocking us out.
Talk about a team reeling. Today they actually benched the QB and they've lost 3 straight and 4 of the last 5. They have home games versus both Oakland and Cleveland with tough road games versus Miami and Carolina. Pittsburgh eat them so if they end up tied Pittsburgh owns the TB on them.
Don't really hear a lot about Tennessee, but they're right in it. Although you have to think they lose this upcoming week on the road at Denver which will put them at least 2 games back with 3 to go. Although the last 3 they play Arizona at home, Jacksonville on the Rd, before ending at home versus Houston. Even with Arizona playing much better those are 3 very winnable games. I just have to wonder if they lose this week at Denver do they mail in being 2 games back with 3 games left. They beat Pittsburgh week 1 and own the TB with us.
Tough schedule remaining, but they've been playing pretty good and with Rivers playing well they could upset anyone. They have a home game against a NY Giant team that has been playing better. They then go on the road to Denver a team they've lost to this season already. They end with 2 home games versus Oakland and then a KC team that could rest a lot of players already being locked into to the 5th playoff seed.
i touched on Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but that was more about the Division and not the WC spot. We have as good a shot as the other team I mentioned here, but with losses to Tennessee and a not so good conference record we pretty much have to win out and end with a 9-7 record. We could get in with an 8-8 schedule, but everything would have to break perfect and without question we'd have to win this week and the only loss we could have would be out of conference versus Green Bay. Pretty much we should know what are chances are after this weeks game at home versus Miami and next weeks versus Cincinnati. We win those 2 and at worse we're likely tied for the final WC spot with Tennessee and maybe Baltimore & Miami going into the last 2 weeks. Baltimore would still have Cincinnati to play while Miami & Tennessee will both be favored in those 2 remaining games.
If we win out and everything goes as I see it we'll be in a 3 way tie with Miami and Tennessee at 9-7 with all 3 teams having 7-5 conference records with us beating Miami and Tennessee beating us. I have no idea what the TB is between 3 teams after conference record. Of course this only happens if we win out and everything else goes as expected which let be honest never happens in the NFL. Now that I wrote this we'll lose this week to Miami and I'd have wasted all this time.