1... Buffalo Bills (f/ KC) - QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
Tarvaris Jackson. Enough said? Well, seriously, I think they have to make a move. If it's not Nick Foles or Ryan Mallett (and it won't be the latter), they're drafting someone high. It's now evident that what I said in January will be the case: Geno isn't sliding this low. And if not him, who? Everyone agrees the #2 guy isn't anything close to a top 10 pick. Not. Even. Close.
For the record, I think if a deal like this gets done, it's for much less than the RG3 deal, and much cheaper than the value chart. Something like #8, a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year. Or maybe even just a future 1st on top of #8 (which would be pretty attractive in the eyes of everyone other than the overconfident GM of the team trading it away, thinking they'll be better than they will be).
2... Jacksonvile Jaguars - DE/LB Dion Jordan, Oregon
Another team whose biggest need is pass-rush. Unlike the team prior, they don't have two double-digit rushers and can easily justify trying to get one here. It's just a case of who they like most, and I'm working on the assumption that Jarvis Jones' health questions are enough to make teams pass this high.
3... Oakland Raiders - LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Quite frankly they need help everywhere. Their GM is from the BPA school of thought, and while their LT is a solid player, he's not great, and he'd be better at RT than left. This gives them legitimate bookend tackles and helps stabilize an OL that's been bad for years.
4... Philadelphia Eagles - OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
With the investment in Barwin, I think they expect him to be a key player. They've also got Cole and Graham, which isn't enough to put them off a rusher, but with Jordan gone I think they opt for Fisher, who can play RT at a high level if Peters comes back, and either way projects as a long-term answer as an athletic LT in Kelly's offense.
5... Detroit Lions - CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
I think they would've really liked one of the top two tackles here, but not enough to trade up by any means with the defensive needs they have. Ansah is going to tempt every team I've written about so far, and he should here with Avril gone and nothing much else at DE, but I think Milliner's the better, more polished player who can step in right away and help cover the likes of Jennings, Marshall, etc.
6... Cleveland Browns - DL Sharrif Floyd, Florida
In reality they need more help scoring points, but nothing adds up here. I think Ansah projects as a much better player than both Kruger and Sheard, but they probably want to give it at least a year to see what they have with them as OLBs. Taylor makes for a nice NT, but what do they have in the way of disrupting the offensive line up front? If Floyd ends up as good as some people think, this could be a steal.
7... Arizona Cardinals - LT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
I think Geno or one of the top 2 LTs sliding is Arizona's hope, but Johnson's a nice fallback. Their QB situation is a joke but Matt Barkley? To be honest I expect QBs to go higher than I project them, but I don't see any fits based on the talent of the players. Ansah again has to be tempting, but they can't ignore the OL forever.
8... Kansas City Chiefs (via BUF) - DE/LB Ziggy Ansah, BYU
Surprise! Well, maybe not since I've talked about him a bunch, but I think the Chiefs make a surprise pick here with Ansah. It perhaps shouldn't be such a surprise, though, as the Chiefs have talented options to play RT (an important but not critical position like LT), and the biggest need on the team is pass-rush. They were 3rd worst in the league last year despite Hali and Houston on the edges. I think teams can game plan them due to the complete void of anyone else even remotely capable of pressuring the QB. Floyd would be an option if he's here, but since he's not, Ansah could be the next relentless pass-rusher KC scoops via Africa. CB is no longer a need and Star simply doesn't fit what the Chiefs need (either a rusher or athletic, lean body on the line).
9... New York Jets - OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
This is where the options start to thin out and any questions about his health are far outweighed by how much better he is than anyone else on the board. IMO he's the best player in this draft and we look back in 3 years and say, how the hell did he end up in NY?
10... Tennessee Titans - DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
I'm not so sure this team won't make some major noise around the draft, but for now I'll leave them here and give them a guy who helps that defense, which needs a lot of it. He's a bit of a risk but has upside, and Tennessee always seems to end up with a player like that one way or another.
[b]11... San Diego Chargers - WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
What a fall from relative grace. It looks to me like they need help everywhere. I considered Warmack before quickly reconsidering. To be honest I don't know how to help them most here, so I'm going with the guy who can help their QB the most, a rocket-fueled security blank who can also stretch the field and scores from anywhere. It used to be that the Chargers can beat you deep with VJax et al or move the chains in chunks with Gates. Now they can't do either.
12... Miami Dolphins - S Kenny Vaccarro, Texas
Supposed offseason champs, I see a defense with a bunch of holes. The big one is at DB where they lack talent, playmaking ability and depth. Vaccarro helps them in those regards.
13... Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Their safeties could be among the best in the league, but last year's horrendous pass defense still needs a lot of help, both in rushing and covering. Mingo could be an option here but those corners are ugly. They might land Revis but it won't be for this pick, and they'll still need more help.
14. Caroline Panthers - DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
15. New Orleans Saints - OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
16. St. Louis Rams - WR Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT DJ Fluker, Alabama
18. Dallas Cowboys - OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
19. New York Giants - TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
20. Chicago Bears - OG Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals - DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
22. St. Louis Rams - RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama
23. Minnesota Vikings - CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
24. Indianapolis Colts - CB David Amerson, NC State
25. Minnesota Vikings - DT Jonathan Hankins, Ohio State
26. Green Bay Packers - OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
27. Houston Texans - S Eric Reid, LSU
28. Denver Broncos - S Matt Elam, Florida
29. New England Patriots - WR Keenan Allen, California
30. Atlanta Falcons - CB Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State
31. San Francisco 49ers - DL Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
32. Baltimore Ravens - LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia