Who is our 2nd best skill position player on offense?

[karhu]

Coaching - We went from Martz ... to Tice .... No change.

Sometimes you've got to sift through the silt to find little golden nuggets like these. Good goin'!

[steelcitysledge]

In 2011 after Forte went down we got 100 yard games from both of his backups, Marion Barber (who retired at seasons end) and 3rd string back Kahlil Bell, who was cut the next season (and resigned later on).

We averaged 145.5 yards per game without Forte in those last 4 games. We averaged 119 a game in the 12 games prior with Forte. The running game was statistically better with out him. So there's that.

I'll admit that does look good if you remove all context from those stats. However, you're making an apples to oranges comparison.
1) Cutler was out for those games and we were playing with Caleb Hanie behind center so we leaned much more heavily on the run game. The dymanic of our offense didn't change because Forte went out with an injury. It changed because Cutler went out with an injury.
2) Barber's only 100 yard game came on 27 carries. That's 4 yds/tote which almost a full yard less than what Forte had averaged (4.9 yds/carry).
3) Bell's 100 yard game came vs the Packers in a blowout where our opponent was so far ahead they could have cared less if we wanted to continue running the ball for 5 yards a pop.

Go Bears!

J

[steelcitysledge]

And since we're discussing ypg, those 205 yards against Carolina loom big enough to move Forte from 17th in the league to 8th. Throw out Cutler's high game, and he moves from 18th to 20th.

What's with all this statistical cherry-picking? Why are we throwing out their best games? All you proved to me is Forte is at least capable of putting up the occasional monster game whereas Cutler cannot.

Go Bears!

J

[westpoint]

If you are picking who do we need to win next season, Cutler is way above Forte, as we should be able to find a serviceable replacement. If you are asking who is the best at playing his position, Forte scores higher than Cutler in my opinon. Attitude and maturity count.

[karhu]

What's with all this statistical cherry-picking? Why are we throwing out their best games? All you proved to me is Forte is at least capable of putting up the occasional monster game whereas Cutler cannot.

Go Bears!

J

No cherry-picking there: when one item in a series affects an aggregate the way Forte's big game affects his season ypg ranking, it's common to at least perform a second calculation that treats the outlier as an anomaly. To be fair, you'd do the same for any similar measures you'd plan to compare, which I did.

If I looked in the opposite direction, at each player's worst game, we'd be talking about Cutler's outing against Carolina (when Forte was the hot hand, and which we won) and Forte's 51 combined rushing yards in our losses against GB and NO. But that would be mean, so I won't mention it.

What this suggests is that Cutler was a steadier, more reliable performer than Forte in 2011, at least when comparing yards per game. Which should give you pause.

[brh]

I'd call a 20% difference somewhat significant.

Forte was injured very early in the KC game, so to be fair, it really shouldn't be counted. If you're talking about any sort of meaningful amount of playing time, then Forte only played in 1 more game then Cutler. The loss of Cutler is what is generally blamed for the collapse that season, but I firmly believe that it was the double-whammy of losing both of them 1 game apart that sunk the team. If Forte had stayed healthy, I think it's very likely that they at least stay afloat enough to squeak into the playoffs considering the weak slate of teams they played down the stretch.

[LeeGenius]

I'll admit that does look good if you remove all context from those stats. However, you're making an apples to oranges comparison.

I don't think we are better without Forte. And I didn't say that we were. But I did trap you. It is hilarious that you just posted the above given all your opining about Cutler playing worse with Marshall than without him. I addressed the circumstances behind those numbers. You are only willing to look at context when it benefits you. No one thinks Cutler is a worse QB with Marshall for one. That is stupid. And 2ndly, this past season was NOT the first season Cutler played with Marshall rendering your point even more moot.

Your statement was something along the lines that Cutler plays worse with better talent which is wrong, and you later cite 2011, refusing to take in account the same context that you ask for with regards to Forte. Again, this is pedantic.

[karhu]

Forte was injured very early in the KC game, so to be fair, it really shouldn't be counted. If you're talking about any sort of meaningful amount of playing time, then Forte only played in 1 more game then Cutler. The loss of Cutler is what is generally blamed for the collapse that season, but I firmly believe that it was the double-whammy of losing both of them 1 game apart that sunk the team. If Forte had stayed healthy, I think it's very likely that they at least stay afloat enough to squeak into the playoffs considering the weak slate of teams they played down the stretch.

Might could be; I don't recall much of the KC game.

Then again, we went for 159, 132, 199, and 92 yards rushing after Forte left; in half those games, our leading rusher exceeded Forte's season average.

We went for 172, 93, 159, 132, 199, and 92 yards passing after losing Cutler. No one came close to matching Cutler's season average, and we threw 12 interceptions.

[steelcitysledge]

No cherry-picking there: when one item in a series affects an aggregate the way Forte's big game affects his season ypg ranking, it's common to at least perform a second calculation that treats the outlier as an anomaly. To be fair, you'd do the same for any similar measures you'd plan to compare, which I did.

If I looked in the opposite direction, at each player's worst game, we'd be talking about Cutler's outing against Carolina (when Forte was the hot hand, and which we won) and Forte's 51 combined rushing yards in our losses against GB and NO. But that would be mean, so I won't mention it.

What this suggests is that Cutler was a steadier, more reliable performer than Forte in 2011, at least when comparing yards per game. Which should give you pause.

I really don't want to work today.

You cherry picked your anomolies. You need to remove both high and low performances from EVERY player and then re-rank them to get an accurate depiction of where each ranks for 'typical' production.

All you're suggesting is Cutler is always below average whereas Forte is occasionally outstanding. Which should give you pause.

Go Bears!

J

[LeeGenius]

I'll admit that does look good if you remove all context from those stats. However, you're making an apples to oranges comparison.
1) Cutler was out for those games and we were playing with Caleb Hanie behind center so we leaned much more heavily on the run game. The dymanic of our offense didn't change because Forte went out with an injury. It changed because Cutler went out with an injury.
2) Barber's only 100 yard game came on 27 carries. That's 4 yds/tote which almost a full yard less than what Forte had averaged (4.9 yds/carry).
3) Bell's 100 yard game came vs the Packers in a blowout where our opponent was so far ahead they could have cared less if we wanted to continue running the ball for 5 yards a pop.

Go Bears!

J

This does show how you like you play fast and loose with the stats though!

Bell had 14 of his 23 carries in the first half for 90s yards. He wasn't getting yards in garbage time dude. You just made that up out of thin air. He had 4 carries for 16 yards in the 4th quarter.

Also, out of sheer curiosity, I looked up the stats to see how much more we ran the ball without Cutler.

In 2011 we threw the ball 26.16 times per game after the Cutler injury and 31 times a game before.

The Bears ran the ball 261 times (about 26 times a game) in the first 10 games with Cutler.

The Bears ran the ball 187 times for 31 times a game in the last 6 games without Cutler.

We basically switched out 5 passes for 5 runs a game. A significant but not monumental shift in philosophy. However both backups, whether by themselves or in combination were able to maintain/slightly increase the production of Forte on average which decimates your point.


We are able to still run the ball with the same consistency without Forte but without Cutler we simply have not be able to win. (1-6).

[karhu]

I really don't want to work today.

You cherry picked your anomolies.

No. I identified the top item in two series and performed a separate calculation. The results helped me make the qualitative decision to call one item in the first series anomalous.

You need to remove both high and low performances from EVERY player and then re-rank them to get an accurate depiction of where each ranks for 'typical' production.

You're wrong to suggest that we need to remove both the high and low items in a series to get a valid answer. Removing only the high item results in just as valid an answer, to a different but closely related question.

And you're wrong to suggest that we need to compare Forte's series minus its greatest single value with similarly adjusted series for every other player in the league. Again, removing the greatest single value from Forte's series and comparing its average with the unadjusted averages of the rest of the league gives us a valid answer to the question it asks. Claiming otherwise is, well, begging the question. What we get is an answer to the question: how much did Forte's single best game contribute to his yards per game average relative to the rest of the league's RBs? That was the question on the table. The results don't really support your drift, but I don't feel like letting you cloud the issue.

Incidentally, take away Maurice Jones-Drew's best game, and he doesn't move from #1 as measured by yards per game. Arian Foster moves from #2 to #3 when you remove his best game. Fred Jackson stays at #3.

QED

[steelcitysledge]

karhu, again, even if I take your rankings at face value, they just tell me Forte is an average NFL RB with the potential to have an exceptional game and Cutler is a below average QB without the potential to have exceptional games.
How you extrapolate that out to Cutler is a better skill position player than Forte is beyond me. It's not hard to replace below average production. It is hard to replace a player capable of producing an exceptional game.

I'm out on this thread and apologize for driving it off topic. I've already voted in the poll and explained the reasoning for my vote.

For those who want to carry on the debate over Cutler, please vote here - http://forums.kffl.com/threads/303169-QB-Satisfaction.

Go Bears!

J

[pellepelle10]

I think its safe to say without Cutler the Bears are toast. Any other position we lose a key player and we still have a chance to survive. I cant say hes the best player on our team but I can say that due to the lack of talent besides him, it makes the quarterback position one of the most significant on the team.