2013 Quarterback Thread

[dasher]

I doubt Geno "didn't want to play in the Senior Bowl". Generally, that decision is made by whoever is advising you and it if they didn't have him go to the senior bowl, its probably because they didn't think it would help his status, or didn't think his status needed helping.

I am very intrigued by Manuel, but all the reports seem to be that he doesn't have it in him mentally to be a QB. He really struggles with reads and decision making as well as accuracy. He's a good guy, he's a leader and he has great physical tools, but if those other things are true, he'll never be much of anything in the NFL.

W/ Regards to Manuel on Accuracy and Decision making - what I saw from Manuel on tape was good and bad. The good is when he stands tall and plays like Big Ben in the pocket. His back foot throws are great. He has a nice spiral. Etc.
His bad plays are when he tries to be EJ the NBA point guard. I think the best thing you can say about this kid is that with the right coaching, he could still have plays with the NBA EJ but still do many of the NFL Pro-Style plays that he'd be suited for.

Bottom line - Manuel needs more patience and that comes from good coaching. The Florida game shows where he needs improvements.
And to be blunt, you saw those improvements in the Orange & Senior Bowl. He gave us EJ the game manager instead of EJ the Gambler. That's why he's the only QB with rising stock since October.

Tiecher of the Chiefs , who has been the only journalist to follow the Chiefs for 10+ years and was also the one that said early that Romeo loved Poe - has said that the Chiefs coaches & scouts were disappointing that he didn't play.
He has some character issues.

With Geno, I see the arm. I'm not denying it. But the kid is 1 read and Out against very weak defenses.
It's very risky to try to draft a guy with the hope that his instincts and mind get faster. It's more of "un-coaching" than coaching.

Sure Geno has some nice streaks in games that look nice in highlights. But ACC still puts together solid defensive recruiting classes , especially in the secondary. The Big XII might not have a corner drafted until round 6.

[dasher]

I don't think it should be "talking heads STFU" ... I mean owners will generally make the choice on who goes no.1 overall. It's a huge contract. In some years it'd better than getting the best available free agent in the market.
But on the same token , it's a ton of money coming out of a man's pocket for 5-6 years. He's not going to let a GM (whose career could be shorter) or Coach tell him who should go.

I don't think Sam Bradford was deserving of the No. 1 overall pick and neither did "the talking heads". But the Rams needed a QB and they're at a point where they aren't sure what they have exactly.

This is a very very tough year for a lot of the "struggling" franchises in the draft. Kansas City is under a ton of pressure right now - more based on the fact that we've passed on Dalton, CK, and Wilson over the past 2 drafts.

If Smith goes No.1 overall , then I think it has more to do with franchise history, embarrassment, and need more than Smith's dominance over players like Luke Jouckel, Star Lotulelei, Jarvis Jones (inj) , and Werner.

That being said... I'll even give you guys this. Things can change at the combine. And Pro Days.

Smith, imo, is waiting to the last minute to impress Andy Reid. But if he does , then I think Reid is the best coach to deal with him and his issues coming out of the draft. I think , with KC having 6 Pro Bowlers, that Reid won't want to spend 1-2 seasons developing a player and will go full-court-press to get Alex Smith. And then find a player later to develop. But anything can happen. I didn't think Pioli would get fired. It's the NFL, it's fun, and it's never consistent.

[Xulu Bak]

I don't think there's a QB in this draft that I'd touch in the top 10, probably not even the top 15-20. I think there's a pretty solid group of late 1st-early 3rd round prospects, but if a couple years ago was any indication, they'll end up questionable first round picks.

I wouldn't even look at Manuel until the 3rd, and even then, I think you have to be willing to commit to an option-read type offense to justify the pick, and even then it's iffy. The guy's ability simply doesn't translate on the field.

[Wyndham]

Talking heads didn't like Bradford? What? I was one of a VERY small handful here that didn't like Bradford, and that's because most of the talking heads as far as I remember slobbered over him, leading to most people doing the same.

It seems this draft season more than any other I can remember is full of revisionist history, or just plain forgetting.

[Nastradamus]

Yah, I'm a Bradford fan and was at draft time and the talking heads definitely loved him. Not only the year he went 1st, but the year before when they said the Lions would have taken him over STafford.

[dasher]

Yah, I'm a Bradford fan and was at draft time and the talking heads definitely loved him. Not only the year he went 1st, but the year before when they said the Lions would have taken him over STafford.

Ok, fine.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/mock-d...t-breer/155117

Read the top portion.

As I did last year, I'll assemble my mock drafts based not on my own opinion, but on the opinions of people positioned squarely in the NFL trenches of talent evaluation. And so here we are, rolling out Mock 1.0 before the 2012 season is even complete.

Maybe the most interesting thing is that, after talking/emailing/texting with a handful of NFL executives and scouts before filing the final version of this mock, I had to remove all quarterbacks from the first round. My gut feeling is that someone, through this long process, will get pushed up. That always seems to happen, once coaches and higher-level folks get their hands on the board. But the fact is that no one I communicated with this morning thought there was a quarterback worthy of going on Day 1. As one AFC exec said, "There's a very good chance none go (in the first round). I don't know who the top one is -- total crapshoot. Geno (Smith)? (Matt) Barkley? (Mike) Glennon? (Landry) Jones? It's a toss-up."

That'll be part of the intrigue of the 2013 NFL Draft process: watching to see if clubs can resist the urge to reach at the game's most important position, maintaining the discipline to stick to what their scouts and college directors are telling them. And what are those guys telling them now? Maybe that things should go down a little like this ...

Now. Sure. Guys rise up. But right now. POST SENIOR BOWL. This is a quote going around. None of this happened in 2011. We had a bunch of 2nd Round Guys that rose up because of the Senior Bowl / Interviews. And the entire QB staff at that SB was playing on a much better level than what we saw this year.

None of these guys are worth a 1st round pick. Now , regardless of position, do you sort of feel weird saying that Geno Smith should go no.1 overall when there are NFL scouts saying that they don't expect a single QB should even go in the first 32 picks.

So the fact that I like a guy, EJ Manuel. Who played in a BCS Bowl Game, Played Well, and Won. Who came from behind to win 4 games this season. Lost 2 games against Bowl Teams in the last quarter. Was the only QB that stood out in the Senior Bowl. Interviewed well. Played in a WCo. And is the only one that can run for yards when under pressure....
is deemed "hilarious" is dumb. Because I don't think Manuel is the greatest. But I think Smith, Barkley, and Wilson .... failed and failed consecutively too much to even be considered for this pick. I'll take the hot hand.

[raiderfan007]

Talking heads didn't like Bradford? What? I was one of a VERY small handful here that didn't like Bradford, and that's because most of the talking heads as far as I remember slobbered over him, leading to most people doing the same.

It seems this draft season more than any other I can remember is full of revisionist history, or just plain forgetting.

I can back you on that. He was my fave Qb prospect of the last 5-7 years (I know) and you kept doggin him, lol

[Wyndham]

How bad is Barkley's arm? I like him a lot, but the arm seems so futile that he can't be taken anywhere near #1. Sure, arm strength isn't the most important thing, we know that, but the "new" NFL proves week after week that your QB better have the ability to sling it 50 times in any given game and sling it hard. I think in 3-4 years he could be a pretty good QB, but it might take that long and I don't think any team can invest in that.

[Nastradamus]

Ok, fine.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/mock-d...t-breer/155117

Read the top portion.



Now. Sure. Guys rise up. But right now. POST SENIOR BOWL. This is a quote going around. None of this happened in 2011. We had a bunch of 2nd Round Guys that rose up because of the Senior Bowl / Interviews. And the entire QB staff at that SB was playing on a much better level than what we saw this year.

None of these guys are worth a 1st round pick. Now , regardless of position, do you sort of feel weird saying that Geno Smith should go no.1 overall when there are NFL scouts saying that they don't expect a single QB should even go in the first 32 picks.

So the fact that I like a guy, EJ Manuel. Who played in a BCS Bowl Game, Played Well, and Won. Who came from behind to win 4 games this season. Lost 2 games against Bowl Teams in the last quarter. Was the only QB that stood out in the Senior Bowl. Interviewed well. Played in a WCo. And is the only one that can run for yards when under pressure....
is deemed "hilarious" is dumb. Because I don't think Manuel is the greatest. But I think Smith, Barkley, and Wilson .... failed and failed consecutively too much to even be considered for this pick. I'll take the hot hand.

For one, Manuel played in a BCS bowl against Northern Illinois, lets take it easy there. Second, every so called draft guru out there says he hears whispers about this and that. I've seen a quote out there that the Chiefs are locked into Geno too and I didn't believe that one either. I'll see if I can dig it up, sorry for not having a link right now. I mean, this time 2 years ago Nick Fairley was going #1, just like people are doing with Star Lotulei and Joeckel. Many had the Lions going Jason Smith and Sanchez not going in the first. QBs take more evaluation and QBs rise. We'll see I guess.

Honest question that is not meant to be snarky or a gotcha. Do you think Smith is a lesser prospect than Tannehill?

[dasher]

For one, Manuel played in a BCS bowl against Northern Illinois, lets take it easy there. Second, every so called draft guru out there says he hears whispers about this and that. I've seen a quote out there that the Chiefs are locked into Geno too and I didn't believe that one either. I'll see if I can dig it up, sorry for not having a link right now. I mean, this time 2 years ago Nick Fairley was going #1, just like people are doing with Star Lotulei and Joeckel. Many had the Lions going Jason Smith and Sanchez not going in the first. QBs take more evaluation and QBs rise. We'll see I guess.

Honest question that is not meant to be snarky or a gotcha. Do you think Smith is a lesser prospect than Tannehill?

1. Sanchez was sky-rocketed by his performance against Penn State. He also wasn't expected to leave USC early. So Scouts had to rush to evaluate him.

2. True but the events of that draft aren't exactly like that. Fairly was a hot name prior to the draft and even pre-season draft grades had him high. He had an excellent combine, but then rumors started to spread around the Pro Days that there were trainers that didn't grade him well. Bowers was also projected to be Top 5 all season... and we know that story.

Cam Newton was an enigma who no one could grade. He had a poor combine. But then an excellent Pro Day (where he gave a killer 40 time and made all of his passes).

3. I'd grade Tannehill much much higher than Smith. But I was one of the first people calling Tannehill a Round 1 prospect. I even started to buy that the Browns would pick him at 3. Even though he didn't have the year that Wilson had ... I thought his Rookie season shows a lot of potential.

Why do I grade Tannehill higher?

Tannehill runs a Bootleg Play Action, really really fast and very very fluid. The time between the snap, the faux handoff, and the throw are what makes him deadly. Sure the Houston + Titans games were ugly early on. But ugly games happen to all QBs. Watch the Seahawks game.

If you look at the 2nd half of the season, he only threw 1 INT in his last 5 games?

Not to keep beating the dead horse but with a guy like Geno + his accuracy, you'd sort of hope that he would have been more like Tannehill in college. IE - that WVu would've used less pick-screens and 3 step drops and let him roll out on throws.

The problem with Geno, I think, is that a lot of people think that he's just secretley athletic. And I'd agree that he could run with the ball. But his footwork whether on the run or in the pocket is wonky. Let's assume he runs a 4.6 or 4.7. Why wouldn't you try to bring in safeties and put linebackers more outside and run deeper ball routes... the same way that Baylor did w/ RGIII?

Just watch this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aF3SJZyT_c

The kid made a bunch of throws behind the line of scrimage or 4 yards past it. Most of the passes 10+ yards were uncatchable/ugly.


He's a good-not-great NFL prospect on the 1st read. Poor on the 2nd. Maybe blame the WVu system and coaching? I mean, that system hasn't - ever - produced an NFL Prospect. And it wasn't meant to. It's all about very fast WRs that move like Running Backs and getting them the ball with open space.

Syracuse is a bland basic defense with average pass rushers. But they were able to hit WVu's WRs hard at the scrimage throwing off Geno's timing and accuracy. There's a play where his TE fell down while making a grab. It's obvious that Geno predicted the TE to be at one place but the TE was past it. So it's not really his read accuracy that makes him great. It's more of his timing accuracy that does.

You ever hear the phrase that "A Tight End is a Rookie's Best Friend". Well the truth of that comes from the fact that most rookie QBs learn (very early) that their 1st read won't be open. No matter how much you practice it, an NFL corner will usually be able to throw off your best WRs timing.

Even more important, because of the speed of NFL defensive ends & safeties, there is a high % chance your screens will be botched. So you can't run the outside screen-happy WvU offense to "Transition" Geno early on.

Everyone you talk to, anyone who has studied tape, worries that Geno can't read (and reposition) fast enough to get to that 2nd target. He stays in the pocket, but when that 2nd read comes, I'm not sure if you want to use the word "stays tall". I think the staying tall part can be taught and figured out... even during these Pro Days. But this is going to be one of the first times every that you'll see NFL coaches trying to get into a Pro-Day drill to test his read-reaction speed/time. I'll be watching and eating popcorn.

And to note, I hope he proves me wrong.

[Wyndham]

Some of your opinions -- not all, but some -- are so wildly inaccurate that it's hard to take you seriously. You're clearly not an idiot, but you say some stuff that's so outrageous, it's hard to know whether it's bias, delusion or just plain crazy.

His deep ball is GORGEOUS. I could fill this thread with .gifs proving that, but you seem to think actual visual evidence isn't good, only what people say/think.

True, he didn't throw it deep every down, but he ran an insanely productive offense and had success. Would've had a lot more if not for an embarrassingly bad defense. Just because a guy didn't run a pro-style offense in college, doesn't mean he can't in future. Are we not seeing this increasingly every year? The NFL is becoming more like college, not the other way around.

[The Q]

How bad is Barkley's arm? I like him a lot, but the arm seems so futile that he can't be taken anywhere near #1. Sure, arm strength isn't the most important thing, we know that, but the "new" NFL proves week after week that your QB better have the ability to sling it 50 times in any given game and sling it hard. I think in 3-4 years he could be a pretty good QB, but it might take that long and I don't think any team can invest in that.

Considering the way some QBs have built their arm strength up in the pros, i think it matters less than it used to.

Brady is the best example of this. Brees too. Both of these guys supposedly didn't have the arms to make big time throws when they came out.

[The Q]

Also this is a really pathetic QB class when a guy like Ryan Nassib is getting any kind of love.

[Xulu Bak]

How bad is Barkley's arm? I like him a lot, but the arm seems so futile that he can't be taken anywhere near #1. Sure, arm strength isn't the most important thing, we know that, but the "new" NFL proves week after week that your QB better have the ability to sling it 50 times in any given game and sling it hard. I think in 3-4 years he could be a pretty good QB, but it might take that long and I don't think any team can invest in that.

Hrm. I don't see him as a 3-4 year developmental guy by any means. If anything, I'd put him as the most NFL ready. That said, his arm strength is definitely a concern. You don't have to have a cannon, but I don't think he has the arm to throw deep outs or seam routes, which is limiting. I think he'd be a nice fit in a WCO, but the concern is that he could be very good most of the time, but struggle against the elite defenses (ala Pennington).

[dasher]

Considering the way some QBs have built their arm strength up in the pros, i think it matters less than it used to.

Brady is the best example of this. Brees too. Both of these guys supposedly didn't have the arms to make big time throws when they came out.

I sat on a plane next to Shaun King (former Buccs QB). He talked about how prior to the draft, 10 years ago, Quarterbacks would just go home and practice with their high school coaches.
Now it's an entirely different game. He said, without hesitation, that 90% of the prospects receive better "Pro" coaching at Manning and Dilfer's camps than they do in school. And the
6-7 weeks prior to the combine can tweak a decent QB into a good one or a good one into a bad one.

Arm Strength , by my definition is actually the ability to hit the ball 'accurately' down the field. The best "test" is usually the go/fly route. Hitting the right 1 yard radius onto that sideline 25-35 yards deep so your man is in perfect stride is as difficult as hitting a hole in one or half court shot.

Throwing Power is the strength within your hips, shoulder, arm, and back foot to send the ball down the field.

I would gather that almost every QB going into this draft as a Round 1-5 prospect has enough Throwing Power to go 45 yards. But maybe 2-3 have the Arm Strength ability to hit a guy in stride 35 deep on Day 1.