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[Wyndham]

I keep going over this in my mind and I continue to find anything but QB a disaster, and that's completely excluding the fact that we desperately need a QB. Reason:

1) Only way you take Joeckel is if Albert goes. If that happens, I don't even have words. You just don't let a guy like Albert walk, no way no how. He's a fine pick if you need a LT but the Chiefs simply do not. Move Winston to OG, Albert to RT and take Joeckel? Jesus, come on. The Chiefs have invested heavily in the OL already. I just can't, can't, can't see the sense here.

2) Only way you can possibly take a pass-rusher with two double-digit guys on the roster is if you go to a 4-3 under type defense, and they've already said they'll play 3-4. Unless that's a big smokescreen, how do you take Moore?

3) There's literally no one else. There's a highly-rated OG (!), a corner... I mean there's just nothing there.

I've argued more than I'd care to already that a QB has to be the pick, but upon some reflection I've thought to myself, "OK, well if the guy at the top of round 2 is an 88 and the guy at #1 overall is only 91, maybe it's not the worst idea" ... but then I remind myself that I don't see what the hell else there is to do at #1? And then I ask myself if the difference between QBs will really be that close, and I don't think it is.

WTF...

[Nastradamus]

I'll be shocked if the pick is anything but Geno for the reasons you laid out. Glennon and Wilson both intrigue me, but I think Geno is a much better fit for Reid than those 2 and I think he simply has more physical talent as well.

[dasher]

I'll be shocked if the pick is anything but Geno for the reasons you laid out. Glennon and Wilson both intrigue me, but I think Geno is a much better fit for Reid than those 2 and I think he simply has more physical talent as well.

I wouldn't draft Geno Smith in the first 3 rounds, let alone no.1 overall.

The kid has a decent arm. But if you really start to do your homework, he's pretty horrible under pressure.

Almost every throw he makes in the Air Raid WVu offense is off of 1st read that is pre-determined before breaking out of the huddle. So he has a ton of these 3 step throw inside to a very speedy WR. His WRs do almost all of the work - as they should. The Safeties in the BIG XIII are usually crap as Head Coaches would rather take 6 men and turn the Top 5 into WRs and the 6th into a DB.

What Reid prefers is a 3 read set up where the QB determines their pocket placement off of a blitz alignment. EJ Manuel would be a better QB in KC's offense.

The K-State tape should be a good example. Arthur Brown owns Geno smith and more importantly, the coaching staff at WVu. K-State put solid bumps onto the speedy WVu WRs throwing off the timing of their pre-snap decission. They brought on a 5th man off of a delay every down as well .

Why is the Delay important?

Someone watched the Tech tape and realized that Geno threw away the ball if he pre-read a blitzer . In the 2nd half of that game, Tech used delays and Geno would keep the ball and try to make things work.

Geno got so shellshocked by K-State's ability that we got all of that rust that WVu wanted to hide. Lots of INTs and Sacks on 2nd read. He doesn't feel CALM getting out of the pocket.

Texas Tech, which developed and ran the Air Raid, also knew how to get Geno. It's obvious that Tech doesn't have that much talent on defense. But they had his number all day.

What could this mean?

I'm pretty sure that every team that needs a QB or doesn't need a QB will have one question. One that they really wish they could have had answered in the Senior Bowl.

Pocket Awareness and Read-Reaction Speed are really the two most important parts of being a Quarterback in the NFL.

Infact, this is really what makes a professional athlete "professional". We throw out words like Accuracy , Ballspeed, and Throw Power. At their values alone , all 3 can actually improve over their 20s and 30s. Especially as practice routines become more in depth.

But really it's the read-reaction time that is what makes you a fantastic QB. Tom Brady, Manning, Manning, and Brees have incredible reaction time. Aaron Rodgers needs to learn pocket presence in those years on the bench. He had to extend his knowledge past 3 step drops and quick shotgun formations.

[Wyndham]

So Smith is incapable of translating to a pro-style, pass-happy offense? We've determined this already?

Your post makes him sound like Matt Cassel - in reality he's nothing at all like that, especially in regards to his deep accuracy and willingness to stay in the pocket to make a throw.

He had a bad OL and, generally, either his 1st or 2nd would be open - hence why those guys will be top 40 picks. Which might be a strike against Geno if he sucked, but considering he lit it up, I'll give him plenty of credit for them being productive. Would anyone grade him better if he stood in the pocket longer, taking more sacks, because his 1st read was open but only 12 yards down?

EJ Manuel is a terrible QB and wouldn't be a better fit than Geno in ANY offense. Unless the offense is designed to suck.

[dasher]

So Smith is incapable of translating to a pro-style, pass-happy offense? We've determined this already?

Your post makes him sound like Matt Cassel - in reality he's nothing at all like that, especially in regards to his deep accuracy and willingness to stay in the pocket to make a throw.

He had a bad OL and, generally, either his 1st or 2nd would be open - hence why those guys will be top 40 picks. Which might be a strike against Geno if he sucked, but considering he lit it up, I'll give him plenty of credit for them being productive. Would anyone grade him better if he stood in the pocket longer, taking more sacks, because his 1st read was open but only 12 yards down?

EJ Manuel is a terrible QB and wouldn't be a better fit than Geno in ANY offense. Unless the offense is designed to suck.

Listen dude, I just put out two fricken statements that came to this conclusion.

A) Watch the K-State game. And the Texas Tech game. I'm guessing you didn't. Which is fine.

B) Read up on the WVu offense. It's NO different than the Texas Tech offenses that had highly rated QBs with tons of yards. You throw to your first read who is open.

You have no argument aside from your video game philosophies about QB play and the NFL.
I'll say this once and then , maybe, you'll get it.

NCAA QB vs NFL QB

NCAA

The NCAA maintains rules for all of their athletes meaning less practice and because they are younger, they aren't given the responsibility of a extensive playbook or system.
It's the first four years on the job. You're important but they aren't going to crash you. Here is how an NCAA starting QB works.

1. Play comes from sideline. Usually with a substitution player , helmet call, or QB coach rotation. QB calls the play in the huddle. Minimal communication.
2. Zone vs Man is called. WRs and RBs are aware. Extra Blitzer is called out. O-line adjusts.
3. Snap. Check your first read. Throw. Blitz is coming.
4. If read 1 isn't open. Go to the read 2.
5. Read 2 isn't open. Throw Away / Dump off WR / Run

That's a decent amount of responsibility and you have to be prepared to do that 370 times a year.

NFL

1. Communication within the huddle. QB talks first. Center (or O-line captain) talks second. Utilities talk 3rd.
2. Play comes in. QB gives last notes - specifically the call count based on how team runs it.
3. Break Huddle.
4. Utility goes in motion. Safety in or Out of Box is declared. Zone vs Man is determined. Blitzer is called out by O-line or QB. Corner Blitzes are called out by Wide Outs.
5. QB decides to audible or not (this is based on time on the clock, by this point an audible can be called by 18 seconds. If not, remain on course)
6. An individual audible will be called out to a Slot, TE, RB based on Box Zone vs Box Man as well as extra blitzer. Basically you're determining based on "how the game has gone" if you want your extra man to contain a blocker OR if you want them to run a route into "potentially open" space.
7. Hopefully by now, all changes have been made with 6-10 seconds left. You call count to see if there any "surprise blitzes" or to basically see if you can get someone offside.
8. Hike
9. Based on the information received prior to the snap (called out blitzer) and the last call count. The QB will determine where in the pocket they need to be.
10. By the time the QB has already determined their pocket , they should have their first read zoned in. They have less than 4 seconds to make that throw after hike.
FOOTNOTE: Read 1 will be gone over 60% of the time in the NFL. Whereas in college Read 1 is the throw in 70% of all passing plays.
12. Read Two is read. Either throw to them or continue. By the time Read 2 is read , 6 seconds should have passed.
13. Blitz Protection is gone. QB must move by now if they haven't already. Throw the ball away , run, or somehow find an option that hasn't been concured yet. At times this can be where Read 1 gets back into the QBs vision.
14. Go back to Huddle and start over.

Where Geno Fails

Well. This is a typical Geno Smith tape play.

1. Play comes in , usually from a substitution player.
2. Call out extra blitzer.
3. Hike.
4. Throw to Read 1.
5. Throw Away.

I'll admit that sounds great. It'd be great if a QB just had to do that. But you can't just base a Quarterback off of that. If that were the case Danny Wuerful, Kliff Kinsbury, and Colt Brennan would be rocking in the NFL.
But the truth is that they all kinda failed because the college plays that they were money on couldn't hold up. And truthfully, the NFL Scouts are going to be tougher on studying Rookie QB's college tape.
Dom Capers is even holding a DC summit on how to defend the Spread Option (hint 3 safeties).

The problem with Geno is that :
a) Despite being athletic ... Geno hasn't really shown that he knows how to pick a place in the pocket. This is mostly because he throws the ball very quickly after being hiked to that he doesn't really worry about the blitz. That could be blamed on the WVu coaching staff. It's their system. They want the Ball into a WRs hands as fast as possible because it works in college.

b) His accuracy after the 2nd read is horrible. Although he has a good 1st read throwing stance, that people in the forums comment on... his footwork after that is ugly. In the NFL your opportunity to throw the passes that Geno had isn't there. If it was we'd be happier fans. It'd be basketball on turf. Corners and Linebackers are much faster (and smarter) than anything he's ever gone up against in College.

c) He'll face the same problem that David Carr and Blaine Gabbert had. People comment on their offensive lines. Well that's not the entire problem. In college they make most of their throws on the 1st read. So you say "oh they're really good and their o-line is good". But in the NFL when they have to literally "look all over the place" for someone who is open... and lets be frank... the difference between a wide open Tayvon Austin and Dwayne Bowe is night and day. That you're going to have a ton of growing pains.

d) The honest truth. Matt Cassel had a very hard time adjusting in KC. He was put into a situation where he had to run a more complex offense and went through several OCs to make it work. But the truth is , IMO , Matt Cassel was burned out. Big time. And if you look at Geno during the K-State game or the Tech Game or even the Syracuse game. The kid got burned out. He stopped doing the steps and he got sloppy. And the worst part is that some guys thrive when they go against their discipline ... Favre , RGIII, Gannon.... but when Geno Smith goes against his discipline. It's f- ucking uglier than Cassel or even Brodie Croyle.


Now, you're mentioning EJ Manuel. Who I admit doesn't have the stats.
But if you use my "steps program" of the NFL and look at tape on Geno and then look at tape on Glennon or Manuel - You will , at the very least, find bright spots on the NFL list from Glennon or Manuel.
I can't find one game where Smith was ever consistent on the NFL type of evaluation.

Now... I'm not exactly saying " well , he'll never make it". You can't say that anyone "can't make it" because there are those who will constantly prove us wrong.

But the one thing that I want to point out is that Cam Newton went into his rookie season with similar problems as Geno Smith. But he made up for it because he knew how to move out of the pocket (and quickly) when that first read was gone. The instinct just snapped in and Newton was a year 1 superstar and year 2 catastrophe when he was told to try out more NFL style plays and teams put more 8 in the box defenses out there to take him out.

With Geno... I sort of want to know - especially around the combine - if he has any of that instinct. The last half of the season I went from rooting for him (and rooting for the Chiefs to lose) to being shell shocked at the lack of skills he had under pressure.

You'd think that he'd appear in the Senior Bowl to prove some of us naysayers. But just to be frank, I think he and his agent knew that he's from a simplified offense and that he'd be killed by whatever Mr. Savage had coming for him.