Keeper Dilemma

[femurov]

I have a little time before I have to make my final cut to 3 players, but my deadline to go down to 5 is coming up. 1 of my final 3 has to be a defensive player and Patrick Willis has that spot locked up.

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE), K, P, and 7 IDPs.

Scoring is 1/10, PPR, 6 pt TDs, R/R. 1/25, 3 pt TDs passing. -2 fumbles, -1 INTs, and 3 bonus points for all TDs over 40 yards.

I'm pretty sure I have my 5 down, but there are a couple guys I'm cutting that I need a little assurance on.

Pretty sure my 5 man roster should look like this...

Brady, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, AJ Green, Patrick Willis

I would be cutting Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. I think that's fine. I know Dez Bryant came on like a mad man late last season and should be in the top 5 in WRs next year, but AJ Green is the man and I don't see myself keeping 2 WRs. I'm basically trying to get input on my final 3 (or 2 minus Willis). I called the siruis fantasy and they suggested AJ Green and Doug Martin. I've been back and forth since week 12 or 13 and I'm not sure about anything right now.

A couple of notes about our keeper rules. We can keep a player for as long as we want. There is no draft pick compensation rules that apply. It's a 12 team league and I pick 12th, but I do not have my 2nd round pick (thanks to Dez). I do have 1 extra pick in the 4th and 2 extra picks in the 5th. We are not allowed to trade until we cut down to 3, which will be at our Summer Meeting sometime around July 4th.

[SWertsch]

If you're not going to keep two Wr, then what is the question? I might keep Dez over Richardson or Brady, but who knows at the point. I tend to like WRs, so I would probably take Dez over TRich. But can have a wrong choice with that lot

[WIZ]

I would keep TRich and Green but I don't think Martin and Green would be far behind. You win either way.

[femurov]

Yeah... I think this is pretty much a question of how I want to start building my team. But, I want to make sure I've looked at it from all angles. So, there may be something you guys pick up that I'm overlooking.

[chewtoy]

Are trades out of the question? Could you flip Bryant and Brady for Rodgers (and get substantially younger at Qb) for example? Or something similar for Luck? You have what looks like 7 guys who have legit keeper value to SOMEONE, but not all of them are that valuable to you. If you can't upgrade that way, can you flip keepers for picks?

[femurov]

Are trades out of the question? Could you flip Bryant and Brady for Rodgers (and get substantially younger at Qb) for example? Or something similar for Luck? You have what looks like 7 guys who have legit keeper value to SOMEONE, but not all of them are that valuable to you. If you can't upgrade that way, can you flip keepers for picks?

Sorry... left that part out. We cannot trade until we cut down to 3.

[eaglesnut]

Brady, Martin, Green.

You are set. TRich has a new coach and offense coming in that didn't draft him. Considering the guys available to you here that would be enough for me to throw him back. Richardson carries more risk.

[femurov]

Brady, Martin, Green.

You are set. TRich has a new coach and offense coming in that didn't draft him. Considering the guys available to you here that would be enough for me to throw him back. Richardson carries more risk.

1 has to be a defensive player (Patrick Willis), so really I can only keep 2 of those 4.

[Hyped]

Because you don't have a 2nd round pick...and extra picks in the 4th/5th...I would keep: Richardson, Martin, and Wills. That way you have two RB's locked up...and can grab a semi-Elite QB late (Big Ben, Flacco, Eli, etc..).

However, I am not sure I read your scoring correctly...I am seeing R/R 1/25 which I assume means rush/rec 25 yards = 1 pt. I also see 1/10 which means 10 passing = 1 point? If so, all the more reason to drop Brady....Brady doesn't have significant yardage above the semi-Elites...Brady will get you a set # of TD's...low INT's...but is never reliable late in the season when the weather changes...

[eaglesnut]

1 has to be a defensive player (Patrick Willis), so really I can only keep 2 of those 4.

Oh. 3 pt passing TDs? Throw back Brady.

[eaglesnut]

However, I am not sure I read your scoring correctly...I am seeing R/R 1/25 which I assume means rush/rec 25 yards = 1 pt. I also see 1/10 which means 10 passing = 1 point? If so, all the more reason to drop Brady....Brady doesn't have significant yardage above the semi-Elites...Brady will get you a set # of TD's...low INT's...but is never reliable late in the season when the weather changes...

His passing is 25 yards for a point and TDs are 3. I think you misread a period for a comma.

[Hyped]

His passing is 25 yards for a point and TDs are 3. I think you misread a period for a comma.

Sounds about right to me...

I still keep RB, RB, IDP in the above scenario...always better to have RB's and NEED WR/QB/TE....

[eaglesnut]

It's PPR though. An elite WR and a lesser RB that gets receptions is the way to go here.

[Hyped]

It's PPR though. An elite WR and a lesser RB that gets receptions is the way to go here.

In PPR, I devalue WR's...as it's much easier to find a 5 catch, 30 yard guy than a RB who will rush for 50 yards....

[jmuSkinsfan]

I have a little dilemma of my own. I'll try to make this brief!

I play in a 10-team auction keeper league. This is our first year doing the keeper, and our rules state that you can keep anywhere from 0 to 2 players. If you spend between $20 and $45 on a player in 2012 you can keep them at that cost in 2013 ... if you spent between $0 (FA) and $19, you round up to $20. If you spent more than $45 it rounds down. For reference, Arian Foster went for $63, McCoy for $61, Rice for $60 as the top players. Brady/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford all went between $45 and $55. Cam Newton went for $42. Top WRs (outside of C. Johnson) were in the $28-38 range. Top RBs obviously in the $55-65 range, etc. etc.

It's a PPR league and we start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/R/T and 1 W/R plus K/DEF.

Our auction cap is $220 for 15 spots, which is $20 higher than most leagues (set at $200). If you choose to keep a player, the amount you keep them for comes off your starting cap for 2013.

Initially my keepers were a lock. I drafted Adrian Peterson for $29 last year. Obv. that was a steal ... so I can keep him for $29 this year. No brainer, since he would likely go for around $63 if he were re-drafted. The way I see it, I'm saving $34 by keeping him over re-drafting him.

I was also going to keep RGIII, who I drafted for $12. I figured, pre-injury, he would likely command what Cam did in 2012 ($42). By keeping him for the round-up min. of $20, I'd save around $22.

Those two were my easy keeps, despite having Alfred Morris ($1 spent, keep for $20) and Dez Bryant ($19 spent, keep for $20) and Andre Johnson ($32 spent, $32 Keep).

Now I figure, even if RGIII is healthy, I could potentially not keep him and re-draft him for around $12-20 since most will be concerned with the injury. No way he goes for any more than that, so my potential "savings" would be minimal by keeping him. I can always re-draft him. So do I keep Alfred Morris ($20) or Dez Bryant ($20). Alf isn't as valuable in a PPR, but he should still be ranked top-10 in 2013. Bryant really emerged, finishing the season 4th at WR. He would be a bargain at $20, but he would likely go for around $28-34 if he were re-drafted. I'm not sure where Morris would go, but my initial guess would be between $30 and 36.

If you were me, would you rather keep Morris and start the season with two top RBs and tons of money to spend (keep in mind I would spend a combined $49 on AP and Morris and start my cap with $171) ... two guys for the $10 less than it would cost to re-draft AP alone. Or do I keep Bryant, start the year with a top-5 WR and a top-3 RB, in the same situation?

I have a feeling most of the league will keep RBs, so there will be more chances to grab a WR in the draft. I will have a chance to re-draft either guy in the auction draft, I just may have to pay the price, which really is okay considering the fact that, either way you slice it, my two keepers will save me a TON of money and will allow me to go spend big on another top guy or a number of middle-ranked guys.