Mike Glennon will be the no.1 overall pick

[dasher]

Either Kansas City or Jacksonville will have the no.1 overall pick.

This is the 7th year in a row that I'll mention it. Owners draft quarterbacks, not GMs.
For an owner to be convinced that NOT drafting a QB no.1 overall is a good idea, you have
to have a very strong personality around you. Think Parcells or Charlie Casserly.

Glennon's tape isn't that great. In terms of comparison, it feels like Alex Smith. But even Smith's tape at Utah had a lot of moxxy. (To me , Smith really got a very late push because of the underdog story behind Utah).

Even with the right coaching staff, there isn't a QB in this draft that has "3-to-1" potential. 3-to-1 potential is 3 TDs for every INT average. A lot of people said that Josh Freeman got drafted in the first round because he had 3-to-1 potential. Some teams have a philosophy of drafting a 3-to-1 Quarterback in the 1st round no matter who their starter is.

What's good :

- Glennon essentially caused part of the riff that made Russel Wilson leave NC State
-Glennon comes from the same coaching staff that Matt Ryan had at Boston College.
-His offense is nearly identical to a Pro Style offense.
- He's tall in the pocket.
-Knows how to use his eyes to eliminate defenders
- Doesn't hesitate between 1st and 2nd progression reads
- Doesn't dance. Stays patient.
- His ball speed control is very good.
- Had an impressive "signature" win against FSU.
- Is lean but could likely bulk up to a more formidable size ( ala Manning or Roethlisberger )

What's not good :

- Compared to previous drafts , his athleticism is very low. He is only a pocket passer.
- 30 TD, 14 INTs in his Senior Season. His Jr. year he was 31 TD 12 TD . Completion rate was also his worst out of all four years. 57.7%
- His team wasn't good. They made a bowl game, but the season had higher expectations. It's a potentially great QB in a year where the ACC was weak.
- Consistency - The Wolfpack have never won 3 consecutive games against BCS teams with Glennon at the helm.
- Fumbles
- MOST of Glennon's hype isn't even coming from his performance this year. Or anything he did on gameday. NFL Coaches looked at him at Peyton Manning's camp this year and thought, in terms of Pro Potential , he was ahead of the other cannidates.
- PROCESS of ELIMINATION ~ The truth is that Glennon only looks good because other colleges aren't running anything similar to pro offenses. Although it is a penalty , refs in college rarely flag basketball style picks. In the NFL downfield blocking is a quick flag. QBs like Barkley, Smith, and even Logan Thomas don't necessarily progress towards NFL stardom because they aren't used to being able to read their 2nd progression quick enough.


What's in question? :

Matt Ryan is the likely comparison here. Ryan was under 60% completion rate and was 31 TD & 19 INT but still found a way to be drafted no.3 overall. Ryan had more attempts at BC to study. But both had very poor receivers. Lots of drops. The argument could simply be ... why didn't Glennon get that fixed in practice?

But there's little doubt

A few years ago a team like Kansas City or Jacksonville could be tempted to draft a much higher rated skills player or lineman with this pick.
Then trade UP and hope a Quarterback drops.

That won't happen this year. The Raiders, Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys will draft a quarterback in the 1st round this year if there is one.
Barkley, Smith, and Glennon will likely be Top 10 picks and a prospect like Bray could even find himself in the mid-to-late first round.
Too many new rules protect the QB and the league is forcing teams to pass to win.

What could change this prediction :

1. Glennon could look miserable in the Senior Bowl or his Bowl Game. He could get injured.

2. I think Jacksonville could draft Geno Smith based on their ownership issues. Khan is a first time sports franchise ownerwho supposedly became firey in his first draft room experience, demanding that Justin Blackmon be the pick no matter what it cost.

If Khan has an uber-ego , he might prefer the athleticism and highlights that Geno Smith had over the blue-collar pocket passer aspects of Glennon.

3. Logan Thomas - I wouldn't make a prediction this bold , but I might as well. If you were a GM in 2012 and you had to name 1 QB you were afraid of blowing up - it'd be Logan Thomas. Unfortunately, his tape looks more like Brock Osweiler more than Daunte Culpepper.

[The Q]

I just don't see it with Glennon. But I get the historical argument about it. But the talent and performance just isn't there.

what do you mean by afraid of blowing up? Afraid of passing on him and watching him become a star? Besides, I think Thomas has to stay in school now. He simply wasn't good this year.

and picks? seriously? the pats run more picks than anyone I don't think I've ever seen them flagged for the pick play.

[JonBlaze]

I don't see it. If you can't dominate college, you certainly won't start doing it in the pros all of a sudden. I also think his lack of athleticism will hurt. Teams/owners are seeing what Luck, RG3, Wilson, Newton, etc are doing

[The Q]

To be fair, did Matt Ryan really dominate?

[PsychoViking]

Yeah, I don't think so. I think he'll be a riser, maybe going in the 1st, but #1. When is the last time that the #1 pick was a total surprise after the season ended? Meaning that one has him there right now.

I wouldn't mind Glennon to the Vikes in the 2nd at all. I'd really like them to finally take someone that has NFL attributes and groom him. Definitely not as a day 1 starter.

[PsychoViking]

Logan Thomas.....ugh, he got so much hype for doing so little. Never impressed with him, just saw way too much hype for such a project. Looks like Josh Freeman but worse in the passing department and he has only been so-so thus far.

He might be a 2nd rounder based on physical tools but I think that would be a reach.

[dasher]

Yeah, I don't think so. I think he'll be a riser, maybe going in the 1st, but #1. When is the last time that the #1 pick was a total surprise after the season ended? Meaning that one has him there right now.

I wouldn't mind Glennon to the Vikes in the 2nd at all. I'd really like them to finally take someone that has NFL attributes and groom him. Definitely not as a day 1 starter.

Mario Williams was a complete shocker. I mean, the final game of the regular season was titled "the Bush Bowl" (Jets vs Texans). Jake Long leaped over Glenn Dorsey & Darren McFadden.
Neither David Carr or JaMarcus Russel were either. (People thought Brady Quinn was no.1 for a very long time...same w/ Aaron Rodgers).

[dasher]

I just don't see it with Glennon. But I get the historical argument about it. But the talent and performance just isn't there.

what do you mean by afraid of blowing up? Afraid of passing on him and watching him become a star? Besides, I think Thomas has to stay in school now. He simply wasn't good this year.

and picks? seriously? the pats run more picks than anyone I don't think I've ever seen them flagged for the pick play.

By "afraid of blowing up" I mean ... 31 teams won't get this player.... so you'd hate your team to face the "potential reached" version of Logan Thomas.

I've seen flags on multiple games for downfield blocking.

[dasher]

I don't see it. If you can't dominate college, you certainly won't start doing it in the pros all of a sudden. I also think his lack of athleticism will hurt. Teams/owners are seeing what Luck, RG3, Wilson, Newton, etc are doing

True. But as Q said , Matt Ryan didn't dominate and he went no.3 overall. Ryan Tannehill didn't dominate and went in the Top 10. You could argue that Sam Bradford was underwhelming the year he went no.1 overall (and also underwhelming during the Combine)

Also, watch the Chiefs or Jaguars play. Both have horrible offenses that ruined their team's ego this year. All of it stems from unwatchable Quarterback play.

Brady Quinn had -14 passing yards in a quarter.

[BigFin]

- Had an impressive "signature" win against FSU.

I like Glennon very much, but that wasn't impressive at all. He and the Wolfpack were completely stymied in the 1st half when FSU actually applied pressure. In the 2nd half, FSU just dropped all their defenders back in zone coverage and didn't blitz anyone. Nearly all of Glennon's throws were shallow crossing routes left wide open.

[PsychoViking]

Mario Williams was a complete shocker. I mean, the final game of the regular season was titled "the Bush Bowl" (Jets vs Texans). Jake Long leaped over Glenn Dorsey & Darren McFadden.
Neither David Carr or JaMarcus Russel were either. (People thought Brady Quinn was no.1 for a very long time...same w/ Aaron Rodgers).

Not really. He was going to the #2 pick. Glennon is nowhere near that.

Jake Long was always going to be taken very high.

You are talking about a guy that isn't even a 1st rounder right now.

[The Q]

And I will say this.

If you're a 3-4 team, how do you not take Jarvis Jones #1?

[BigFin]

And I will say this.

If you're a 3-4 team, how do you not take Jarvis Jones #1?

His spinal stenosis might keep him from the #1 overall election.

[Wyndham]

And I will say this.

If you're a 3-4 team, how do you not take Jarvis Jones #1?

Because QBs go #1. The chances of Geno Smith turning around a franchise are much greater than Jarvis Jones. And if you're picking #1, that's what needs to happen.

[PsychoViking]

Jones is a monster, the biggest question is that he looks small and what happens when he has to add weight in the NFL. Von Miller was already a pretty decent size in college and Jones just looks skinny.

I like Geno Smith, not sure I'd take him #1. I think I'd rather take Aaron Murray in the 2nd and have Jones to go with him.