Either Kansas City or Jacksonville will have the no.1 overall pick.
This is the 7th year in a row that I'll mention it. Owners draft quarterbacks, not GMs.
For an owner to be convinced that NOT drafting a QB no.1 overall is a good idea, you have
to have a very strong personality around you. Think Parcells or Charlie Casserly.
Glennon's tape isn't that great. In terms of comparison, it feels like Alex Smith. But even Smith's tape at Utah had a lot of moxxy. (To me , Smith really got a very late push because of the underdog story behind Utah).
Even with the right coaching staff, there isn't a QB in this draft that has "3-to-1" potential. 3-to-1 potential is 3 TDs for every INT average. A lot of people said that Josh Freeman got drafted in the first round because he had 3-to-1 potential. Some teams have a philosophy of drafting a 3-to-1 Quarterback in the 1st round no matter who their starter is.
What's good :
- Glennon essentially caused part of the riff that made Russel Wilson leave NC State
-Glennon comes from the same coaching staff that Matt Ryan had at Boston College.
-His offense is nearly identical to a Pro Style offense.
- He's tall in the pocket.
-Knows how to use his eyes to eliminate defenders
- Doesn't hesitate between 1st and 2nd progression reads
- Doesn't dance. Stays patient.
- His ball speed control is very good.
- Had an impressive "signature" win against FSU.
- Is lean but could likely bulk up to a more formidable size ( ala Manning or Roethlisberger )
What's not good :
- Compared to previous drafts , his athleticism is very low. He is only a pocket passer.
- 30 TD, 14 INTs in his Senior Season. His Jr. year he was 31 TD 12 TD . Completion rate was also his worst out of all four years. 57.7%
- His team wasn't good. They made a bowl game, but the season had higher expectations. It's a potentially great QB in a year where the ACC was weak.
- Consistency - The Wolfpack have never won 3 consecutive games against BCS teams with Glennon at the helm.
- MOST of Glennon's hype isn't even coming from his performance this year. Or anything he did on gameday. NFL Coaches looked at him at Peyton Manning's camp this year and thought, in terms of Pro Potential , he was ahead of the other cannidates.
- PROCESS of ELIMINATION ~ The truth is that Glennon only looks good because other colleges aren't running anything similar to pro offenses. Although it is a penalty , refs in college rarely flag basketball style picks. In the NFL downfield blocking is a quick flag. QBs like Barkley, Smith, and even Logan Thomas don't necessarily progress towards NFL stardom because they aren't used to being able to read their 2nd progression quick enough.
What's in question? :
Matt Ryan is the likely comparison here. Ryan was under 60% completion rate and was 31 TD & 19 INT but still found a way to be drafted no.3 overall. Ryan had more attempts at BC to study. But both had very poor receivers. Lots of drops. The argument could simply be ... why didn't Glennon get that fixed in practice?
But there's little doubt
A few years ago a team like Kansas City or Jacksonville could be tempted to draft a much higher rated skills player or lineman with this pick.
Then trade UP and hope a Quarterback drops.
That won't happen this year. The Raiders, Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys will draft a quarterback in the 1st round this year if there is one.
Barkley, Smith, and Glennon will likely be Top 10 picks and a prospect like Bray could even find himself in the mid-to-late first round.
Too many new rules protect the QB and the league is forcing teams to pass to win.
What could change this prediction :
1. Glennon could look miserable in the Senior Bowl or his Bowl Game. He could get injured.
2. I think Jacksonville could draft Geno Smith based on their ownership issues. Khan is a first time sports franchise ownerwho supposedly became firey in his first draft room experience, demanding that Justin Blackmon be the pick no matter what it cost.
If Khan has an uber-ego , he might prefer the athleticism and highlights that Geno Smith had over the blue-collar pocket passer aspects of Glennon.
3. Logan Thomas - I wouldn't make a prediction this bold , but I might as well. If you were a GM in 2012 and you had to name 1 QB you were afraid of blowing up - it'd be Logan Thomas. Unfortunately, his tape looks more like Brock Osweiler more than Daunte Culpepper.