Due to the recent Ryan Tannehill talk heating up I wanted to throw out my own personal opinion of Tannehill and why we shouldn't go after him. I posted some of this in another thread but felt this needed its own thread.
For the record I've said that I wanted a franchise QB and would've gave up a ton for RG3, so it's not the position I think we should avoid, it's Tannehill. While I've always liked Tannehill, I've never loved him. I have some big concerns with Tannehill. My personal take on Tannehill:
I'll start with the positives first: *He has a good (not great) arm *He's very good throwing on the run *Real good size *Good athletic ability *He's extremely good throwing outside the numbers (though those are the easier passes in the game) *Can make stick throws at times *Good character guy, intelligent and hard worker *Good upside
Cons: *He's not as effective throwing between the numbers *Struggles reading defenses (yes he's inexperienced, I know) *Accuracy on his deep ball is pretty bad (Bad fit with Djax and Andy Reids deep ball offense) *Makes some really poor choices with the ball at times, 15 INTs this past year. 3 games with 3 INTs, all 3 games lost, 2 coming by less than 2 points each. *Inconsistency with ball placement, 61% completion might look good on paper, but the Aggies offense was very simple with quick out throws, screens and dump offs, not much down-field threat so that 61% should've been around 65-68%. *Locks onto his primary target *The biggest con for me: Not clutch!!! Out of 6 games that were decided by one possession, they lost 5, 2 games being in OT. The one win came from Texas Tech when the Aggies were up 45-30 in the 4th quarter with 12min left, their offense stalled and allowed Texas Tech bring the score to 45-40, but by that time there was only 30 seconds left and the game was a wrap. In the other 5 games Tannehill had opportunities to lead his offense to a win but came up short every time. In most those games he made crucial mistakes, threw picks, some at the end of the game where they had a chance to drive and win the game.
I just don't see him ever being a top 10 QB in this league, and if I'm trading up into the top 7 picks I want the kid to have the potential to be a top QB in the game.
We're on the verge of having a very powerful team this season and we will be serious superbowl contenders, we have multiple picks that could help us get over the hump, let's not waste multiple picks on a QB who has serious question marks and wont help us win a superbowl this year.
On top of that, the QB class of 2013 is looking to be loaded with talent and depth, we should retool this entire team with the multiple picks we have (not give them away for Tannehill) and make a strong run at the SB this year. If we flop, we're in prime position for a top QB, if we do good and we can still trade up and target one of the QBs in what will be a depth filled class of passers.
Right on the money. However you slice it, he is a bigger gamble than we should take. Rolling the dice for "potential" is meant for other rounds not the first. Teams should have a darn good idea what they are getting in round one not what they "potentially, maybe," could have down the road. These kinds of picks are what make the draft a bigger crapshoot than it needs to be.
For me it's just not enough body of work ... not enough shown from the pocket and not enough down field stuff from the pocket. The kid has potential ... not questioning that, but when it comes to taking the QB position in the top 5-7 picks I want a guy with a little better resume. The fact that you can get outside the pocket and throw on the run is a plus, but when you get to the pro's you better make most of your plays from the pocket unless you have the speed and quickness of a Michael Vick. And even Vick has learned that to be successful you have to learn to make plays while staying in the pocket.
I know some people here like him a lot ... and I'm not disputing that the kid has some very good tools (I was one of the first to even give the kid props in the draft thread up top), but to me his ceiling should be around where we pick at 15 and his floor the end of Rd 1. Pretty much where he was projected to go by just about everyone be4 he went out there in shorts and threw the ball without any D in his face.
There's a chance that we'll have absolutely no chance at any of the top QBs next year. Tannehill may be the best possible franchise QB we'll be able to draft in any of the next few seasons. He's similar enough to Aaron Rodgers as a prospect and he's going to be developed in a similar system here, that he seems like a damn good chance to take.
I'm not worried that he's raw. None of these young QBs come into the league being able to do what the top QBs can do with their eyes and ball placement. I don't mind that he'll develop at the pro speed of the game instead of the college one. Doesn't seem like a negative to me. He'll get the time to learn all about being a QB and studying professional defenses.
Also not worried about him learning to throw deep. Both Brees and Brady learned it once in the league, and Brees especially throws a beautiful deep ball now. One of the biggest positives I see is how comfortable he is dropping back from center. A lot of young QBs have to learn that and many of them fail because they never do. In this offense, that'll just help him develop quicker.