2012 draft speculation, post-Hayden and -Wilhite

[thunderspirit]

at corner, Charles Tillman is a lock and Tim Jennings is more or less set; D.J. Moore is probable. i'm willing to guess that Hayden and Wilhite battle for a spot if the Bears draft a corner, or both stick if the Bears don't. either way, that's two more corners for a total of five.

at safety, Chris Conte, Craig Steltz, and Major Wright are givens. that leaves one spot at safety. there are three guys on the roster, but mostly meh:

• Winston Venable, UDFA (2011) -- active 12 games
• Anthony Walters, UDFA (2011) -- active 4 games
• Donovan Warren, futures contact (1/2012) -- likely TC fodder

drafting a safety is essentially a lock.

Mark Barron should be there at #19, but i believe the Bears are focused on the defensive line unless someone surprisingly slips.

if Harrison Smith is available at #50, i think they'll bite. otherwise, much as i might like to see the Bears take Boise State's George Iloka and coach him up, i believe they'll do the same thing they did last year -- take a Pac-10 DB with some corner experience considerably earlier than most of us thought he should go.
PFW scouting report
NFPost scouting report
CBS/NFLDraftScout.com scouting report

other reports

[chewtoy]

Locked in at DE?

Mr webb would like to remind you that he is still the worst starter on our team (cutler nods emphatically).

And Earl Bennett's mom called to let you know she thinks your irrational confidence in him is a little unfounded. She just kept screaming into the phone "he's a #3, people!!!! Why can't you see he's a #3? Has it been THAT long since you had a #1 or a #2??? He's a 3!!!". We eventually had to sedate her

[thunderspirit]

LOL, chewie.

i'm not necessarily saying that's what i would do -- i'm saying that's what it appears the Bears are going to do.

i think if DeCastro or (maybe) Reiff slips, they'd take them. i think if Floyd slips to #19, they'll take him. JMSO, in the likely event that none of that happens, they'll take a defensive lineman and call Day 1 a wrap.

we might see a receiver or offensive lineman on Day 3 (maybe Day 2, if things break right), but i'm willing to bet cash money there's gonna be at least four new Bears on the defensive side of the ball when the draft is over. (so get your sedatives ready.)

[chewtoy]

Dunno. Add in blackmon and kahlil, and 1/3rd of the picks ahead of us would have to be OL or WR for us to miss out. That doesn't feel like a certainty. Especially since G's and WR's often tumble or get drafted out of order.

You could be right, though.

[janos_51]

I'm 75% sure they go Stephen Hill. Whether they trade back a bit to get value or not is the question. But he's the target IMO. Now the caveat is if a guy like Ingram, Floyd or DeCastro falls...you have to pull the trigger.

[DaSuperfan]

I'm 75% sure they go Stephen Hill. Whether they trade back a bit to get value or not is the question. But he's the target IMO. Now the caveat is if a guy like Ingram, Floyd or DeCastro falls...you have to pull the trigger.

What's you hunch based off of? Just curious. I wouldn't mind Stephen Hill at all, I think he's got tons of potential and can be our deep threat opposite #15.

[thunderspirit]

Lovie did have dinner with Hill after the Georgia Tech pro day.

i'm not saying that means Janos is right, but it's at least usually an indicator of interest from the Bears. similar to the cadre of people they had at the Notre Dame pro day -- obviously looking at Michael Floyd and probably Harrison Smith, but JMSO also Robert Blanton, who's a perfect Cover 2 corner (not to mention one they won't need to pick before Day 3).

[janos_51]

The usual cast of speculative players surrounding our pick are yielding no traction vs the others. that means that nobody in the general media has hit the nail on the head. I'm actually not even sure that Ingram excites the staff THAT much. I think they would look hard at him, but would still go Hill.

I look at the scheme of both offense and defense and can point out where the holes are for a 1-2 year run. I know that the staff has to think long term, but if they don't pull something off short term they certainly won't get a shot to re-build.

Short term, offense: Meathead saw the results of having two big time WR's who were both capable of big plays in Minny, then he saw the good and the ugly of the Martz system. I believe that he will utilize the run and playaction, 3 WR sets, and a ton of misdirection to keep d linemen off balance to help our o line. This line needs help to be on an Island in pass pro, but can be impressive when they are utilized properly. They key ingrediant to make the offense work is a guy who can stretch the field...So that means either Hill or Fleener. My guess is Hill, as they feel the current TE's can/deserve (to) be playmakers.

Defense short term: pass rush and better coverage. Ingram can put on the pressure, Merciles, is questionable, Coples has questions...do we want a "Marc Anderson" guy in Irvin who might have 1 good year? Would a Kirkpatrick/Gilmore help create more coverage sacks? Sure if they fall.

So Hill/Fleener, Irvin, Trumaine Johnson would be a great 3 round set. and cover our immediate needs as well help us build for the future. It makes perfect sense, and who knows, the stars seem to be aligning for a perfect draft.

[Aube]

We have to go OL in R1. If Glenn and/or Decastro is gone, trade down for Fleener or Wright. Don't care for any other OL that will be there when we pick. Can't see Cutler get killed again this year.

[Aube]

I'm 75% sure they go Stephen Hill. Whether they trade back a bit to get value or not is the question. But he's the target IMO. Now the caveat is if a guy like Ingram, Floyd or DeCastro falls...you have to pull the trigger.

Hill scares me . . . and not in a good way. Too raw and Wright is a more complete WR.

[anhur]

What Emery has done if free agency is brilliant I think. He has stocked the roster to the point where he can go in almost any direction in round 1. The biggest needs are LT and DE at this point, but we have the same guys at those positions that we were winning with last year, so no need to reach. Unfortunately, those two positions seem thin this year, and are not likely to present value with the 19 pick.

I would not take an OL with that pick unless Reiff or DeCastro somehow fall. I might consider Cordy Glenn, but I am not entirely sold on the guy. The LT prospects (Martin, Adams) seem like projects with bust potential to me, and I wouldn’t want to look at either guy until round 2.

I honestly don’t like any of the DE’s in this draft as first round picks either. Coples, would be a good value, and I wouldn’t get upset if he were there and we took him. I just see a lot of bust potential with him, and don’t expect him to be there anyway. The rest of the guys seem like reaches to me, and I would prefer to just grab a pure rush specialist in the middle rounds to add to the rotation.

I do like the possibilities at CB, DT, and WR. The guys that I would be most interested in at this point are Kendall Wright (love this guy), Fletcher Cox (may be gone), and Stephon Gilmore. To me, going with the best DT, or CB on the board makes the most sense. The WR position could still be addressed, but you don’t need to do it in the first round now. You have Marshall, and a cast of 2s and 3s to surround him with, and with the addition of Bush it seems clear that we are not going to be throwing to the point where a 1a and 1b are needed. Not to say that I would complain, but the value in round one seems to be with infusing the D with youth at a critical position.

I guess that in the end, I want to see us draft for value rather than need in the first two rounds. It would be nice to add a starter to the OL, but our guys really are still developing and will be put in much more favorable positions this year due to Martz being gone. I also don’t like the idea of reaching for one of these DE’s, and ending up with a bust. If the value is at another defensive position, you have to go that route. I love or D, but it’s a time bomb. You have very little young talent, and the ageing superstars that have been keeping this thing going won’t be here forever. I like the idea of adding talented young players at every level of the D. I would lean towards doing that this year, and focusing more on the offense next season

[TBATB54]

Lovie also had lunch with Felix Jones and Darren McFadden.

Don't get me wrong - I like Hill a lot.

19 should be BPA though. I find it hard to believe that Hill will be the BPA there - I'd be surprised if they liked Hill more than Wright (if he was there at 19.)

I'd assume Rounds 1-3 will be some combo of DE, DT and LB/SS/CB.

[pellepelle10]

I don't know why but the idea of us going after Kendall Wright sounds best. The guy is legit. Other than his smaller frame and questionable blocking he's a stud. People say safe pick but the guy was a threat in college. I don't know about most but I'm hoping we get him if Floyd, or Decastro don't drop.

[chewtoy]

I'd assume Rounds 1-3 will be some combo of DE, DT and LB/SS/CB.

I don't get it? WHY? Why go all defense when our offense is clearly more broken?!?!j

According to THIS site, Webb was responsible for 14 sacks last year (of the 23 licks Cutler received). For reference, 14 sacks would have been 15th in the league last year if racked up by any individual. Webb made the AVERAGE players he played against total ELITE numbers.

Other fun facts:

1.) at 24.5 sacks in 26 starts, Webb is averaging nearly a sack allowed per game
2.) between penalties and sacks, Webb is good for -11 yards per game last year.

Also of note:

Of the top 100 Wide Receivers (in terms of yardage last year), Chicago had 2 on the team last year. They were Knox (#51, likely out to start the season) and Williams (#89, free agent.) Marshall was #10.

Clearly that means Marshall is REALLY good. It also means that the best Wr we have to start opposite him produced WORSE than your average #3 Wr last year (32 teams * 3 Wr's = 96 Wr's.....)


So, we have an EPICALLY bad LT, an AWEFUL situation at #2 Wr, and even last season our Defense was MUCH better than our offense, but we are going to spend all of our "money picks" on the defensive side of the ball?

Why? wouldn't make sense to address our biggest holes?

[TBATB54]

Why? wouldn't make sense to address our biggest holes?

They'd be doing that by drafting a pass rushing DL at 19.

The defense is old. The Bears have made a plethora of moves on the offensive and special teams side of the ball but haven't done anything to address the defense.

The OL is pretty much set - unless they bring in Steinbach at LG, which would move C. Williams out to LT (just a guess), and Webb to the swing OT role. Unless it's a big smokescreen, seems like the boys are ok with the current OL in place. Again, I might be one of the only ones that think the OL improved when Martz wasn't coming back, plus they get Carimi back too.

What WR are they picking at 19? Floyd? Come on. Kendall Wright? Maybe. If he's there I think he's the pick, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's right. The recent CB signings have made drafting CB less of a priority and while the CBs aren't Philly or the Jets, they can look a lot better if 90 got another running mate (not Izzy and not Wootton - who should be on his last chance, IMO.) Speaking of Izzy, I think he's ticketing for a DT role if they were to draft someone like Mericilus in R1.

Disagree that the defense was playing much better than the offense. In the week before and the San Diego game, I'd say they were about equal - as the offense was firing on all cylinders.