Running with the Broncos - How Pioli will have to counter today's signing

[dasher]

So today wasn't an easy day for a lot of Chiefs fans. Whether you think Manning is healthy or good anymore doesn't even really matter. The point is that the Chiefs looked like the favorite for AFC West yesterday and today that changes.

The person most affected by this will be Scott Pioli. Whether it would have helped us win a Super Bowl or not is irrelevant. The point is that Manning not only went to the Broncos, but after the Hunts mentioned that they were going to actively pursue Peyton the Chiefs didn't command a simple meeting. Perhaps it looks bad for the Titans, Cardinals, or Miami but at the very least they received interviews.

1. Trading Down. Often I stated this move before today. Although Scott Pioli's job could be on the line, he has to prepare like he will have another offseason. The best deal Pioli can make is to trade deep into the first round or even to the 2nd round (Baltimore , NYG) and hope for a future 1st round pick that will get him to a Blue Chip QB. The Chief's curse is that they have yet to get close to drafting a franchise QB - even when they needed one. Manning was successful in Indy because Jacksonville, Texas, and Tenn went through identity crisis at the position, keeping he and his teammates calmer through the first half of the season / offseason / training camp.

2a. Pioli must draft a player that is an immediate starter and makes an impact in the 1st round. A nail in Pioli's coffin would involve the Chiefs having a developing 1st round pick. Last year Tyson Jackson, Eric Berry, and Jon Baldwin did not help Pioli's cause - even if Berry was injured. As a person hired to build a team through the draft, Pioli has yet to prove that he knows exactly what he's doing in the draft's most important round.

2b. From a Manning & Broncos perspective. The Chiefs have a 1 and 5 record against Manning. Including 2 playoff losses against him. Their only win came in Manning's rookie year. As a fan of the game, I personally think Manning is the best Quarterback in the league. Even with this injury. Teams have found ways to beat the Colts but very few teams have figured out how to beat HIM. Should the Chiefs draft with Manning in mind? The simple answer is yes. The two games against the Broncos mean that much to everyone in the organization and perhaps the NFL. IF Manning can be silenced by the AFC West, the same way that Favre was out-before-you-could-think in New York the better for the Division and our Organization. If the Chiefs look like the same team as last year agains the Broncos it won't be good enough.

3. How to Beat Manning -

A. Score over 26 points. Through out his career Manning averaged around 16 points per game (not including XP) on his own arm. Add in field goals and running backs and you can see why he had 141 wins out of a 192 game span. Out of those losses he only had 5 games where he scored less than 2 touchdowns. In games against Manning where teams scored over 26 points, Manning's winning percentage dropped. That being said, he's still the top all time QB for 4th Quarter Comeback Wins.

B. Keep him off the field . Teams that ran the ball on the Colts successfully aren't always successful. Manning is the first QB in history to win a game with less than 13 minutes of TOP. He has also won more games with less-TOP-than-his-opponent. Yet he has only lost 10 games where he had more TOP than the opponent. One was the super bowl.

C. Try your best to cover his wideouts. Despite the injury, Manning will always have 4 targets after he hikes the ball. The hardest part is that he usually saves the "mis-match" as the 3rd read or Dump Off player and the second best mis-match as his 1st/Quick read. Like a playground bully he will continue to abuse a mismatch through out the game. His job is to frustrate teams that don't have an answer and pit them against themselves going into the 2nd Quarter. Every Colts loss that I've seen has usually involved a well-studied secondary going into the game. Be it the Eagles or Patriots having 4 players that can COVER along with two Safeties is the best bet to keep the ball-game competitive. But even then the speed and quickness of Manning's throw is usually faster than the hip movement of most normal corners.

D. Pass Rush Amongst QBs that have played 100 games, Manning has the lowest sack % in history. The most competitive QB that I'll ever see, Manning actually dares teams for pressure to give his Wideouts more room to move. Being that he lives in the shotgun and reads progression quickly, it's rare that a player will get to him on time. The best DEs get their hands high for a tip if they can. Expect Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will become non-factors in these games.

E. Attitude Remember the Chiefs playing San Diego on Halloween's Monday Night Football. That is how teams need to be against Peyton & Co. Second half adjustments are as key as 1st quarter preperation. The team only runs out of the locker room twice. Make sure that both times they are ready to kill.

DRAFT BOARD

1. Dre Kirkpatrick , 'Bama- Stanford Routt is a fine signing but he replaces Carr. The Chiefs biggest problem last year was covering tall WRs/TEs. Kirkpatrick has the wingspan and hipspeed to be the next Nmadi Asamugh.

Immediate Impact : Yes. Kirkpatrick could find his way into the defense 60% of snaps.
Broncos Impact : Yes. Thomas becomes a major threat with Manning at the helm. This could allow Kirkpatrick to cover him , Routt cover Decker, Flowers to cover the Slot (Stokely?) , Berry to cover the TE (D. Clark?), and Arenas to cover the running back. Lewis playing Center Field.

2. Luke Kuechly, 'BC -
Immediate Impact : The Thumper logic is a bit stupid , IMO. If you designate a player to hit the line / run every down then teams can prepare to counter it with a pass - especially in today's 4 Wide Offense. Kuechly is quick enough to carry the zone as well as cover a RB or TE. He is an instant upgrade over Javon Belcher.
Broncos Impact : Routt covers Thomas w/ Lewis on a double team, Kuechly covers TE (Dallas Clark), Flowers covers Decker, Arenas covers Slot. Johnson covers RB. Berry spies Manning.

3. Mark Barron , 'Bama-
Immediate Impact : Barron brings both leadership, brains, and stability to the Safety position. He is physical enough to play the Jon McGraw role of yesteryear to a T.
Broncos Impact. Routt covers Thomas w/ Lewis on a double team. Berry covers TE (Dallas Clark), Flowers covers Decker. Arenas covers Slot. Barron covers Center Field.

4. Josh Robinson , UCF
Immediate Impact : Robinson almost seems like a Raiders pick. But his film is actually pretty amazing. He might be a Top 20 Pick as of now. Especially w/ his Special Teams and WR potential.
Broncos Impact : Routt covers Thomas w/ Lewis on double team. Robinson covers Decker. Flowers covers Slot. Berry plays Center Field. Arenas on Running Back.

5. Brandon Boykin, Georgia

Immediate Impact : Could be selected if we draft in the 2nd Round. Plays both WR/S/Corner. Would allow Berry to move to the McGraw role.
Broncos Impact : Routt on Thomas w/ Boykins. Flowers covers Decker. Arenas on Slot. Lewis and Johnson on TE. Berry on Blitz or Covering RB.

6. Vinny Curry, Marshall

Immediate Impact : Could replace Wallace Gilberry. Also play passing downs. Considered to be a JPP clone. Excellent wingspan. Following the Giants playoff success the 5-6 D seems to be the recent fad.

Broncos Impact : 5-on-the-line. Houston-Bailey-Dorsey-Curry-Hali. 6-back. Flowers-Arenas-Johsnon-Berry-Brown-Routt.
A move like this would surely force the run.


7. Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
Immediate Impact : Replaces Jon McGraw. Gives the Chiefs a better case against the run & pass.
Broncos Impact : 5-on-the-line. Houston-Bailey-Dorsey-Jackson-Hali. 6-Back. Flowers-Arenas-Johnson-Berry-Smith-Routt.

[IHT]

nice write-up, but i disagree with a number of points you made that i don't have time to reply to... but just a couple.

- why would Denver be the favorites now?
their strength was clock control and running the ball with Tebow, because their defense couldn't stop too many people if left on the field for a while. their WRs/TEs/RBs don't scare anyone. their secondary doesn't scare anyone. their DL doesn't scare anyone... as much as i think Tebow blows as a "QB", the spread power running game is what kept them IN games last year when they should've been blown out.
if they throw it 55 times to 10 runs a game, which will happen if Manning gets to call his own # like he did in Indy, i highly doubt he'll have the same success he had in Indy.

-as far as Piolis drafting in the first round...
--t. jackson, we all know the story about not Pioli's scouting dept/methods, that years first round talent sucking, not being able to trade back, etc... he had to take what he had to take.
--Berry, pure stud. not Piolis fault he got hurt.
--Baldwin, will be a stud. again, not Piolis fault that Thomas Jones likes to beat the **** out of rookies and get away with it. he could've been a factor for our offense last year, had we had a decent coordinator and T. Jones didn't break his thumb for him.

i do believe he needs to trade down and stock up on some "chips" for the future.
i don't believe that we need to focus our draft to combat 1 old QB who may or may not be able to throw the ball effectively. why not focus on making our team better as a whole, maybe make THEM figure out how to stop US (which comes down to game-planning/philosophy, that some of you don't believe makes any difference).

[Wyndham]

Over. And over. And over.

[dasher]

nice write-up, but i disagree with a number of points you made that i don't have time to reply to... but just a couple.

- why would Denver be the favorites now?
their strength was clock control and running the ball with Tebow, because their defense couldn't stop too many people if left on the field for a while. their WRs/TEs/RBs don't scare anyone. their secondary doesn't scare anyone. their DL doesn't scare anyone... as much as i think Tebow blows as a "QB", the spread power running game is what kept them IN games last year when they should've been blown out.
if they throw it 55 times to 10 runs a game, which will happen if Manning gets to call his own # like he did in Indy, i highly doubt he'll have the same success he had in Indy.

-as far as Piolis drafting in the first round...
--t. jackson, we all know the story about not Pioli's scouting dept/methods, that years first round talent sucking, not being able to trade back, etc... he had to take what he had to take.
--Berry, pure stud. not Piolis fault he got hurt.
--Baldwin, will be a stud. again, not Piolis fault that Thomas Jones likes to beat the **** out of rookies and get away with it. he could've been a factor for our offense last year, had we had a decent coordinator and T. Jones didn't break his thumb for him.

i do believe he needs to trade down and stock up on some "chips" for the future.
i don't believe that we need to focus our draft to combat 1 old QB who may or may not be able to throw the ball effectively. why not focus on making our team better as a whole, maybe make THEM figure out how to stop US (which comes down to game-planning/philosophy, that some of you don't believe makes any difference).

I think it's ignorant or arrogant to say that Manning doesn't make the Broncos the favorites in the AFC West. Not only will Denver likely add Dallas Clark/ Jeff Saturday but they'll become a WIN NOW team in terms of drafting and free agency. They are a couple of years away from looking like the Vikings.

At the end of the day, Pioli hasn't had the pieces to draft a high-potential Super Bowl Caliber QB. He needs to keep drafting QBs late and he needs to have to chips to do that. Even if Quinn, Stanzi, or Cassel becomes that we are losing Dorsey, Jackson , or Albert next year.

[GiveUp2122]

Dorsey or Jackson will be easily replaced....they should have pretty large cap numbers as well currently so that should free up some space

[dasher]

Explain EASILY, Giveup.

Dorsey is a major reason why Hali had the number of sacks he had this past year.

[GiveUp2122]

Explain EASILY, Giveup.

Dorsey is a major reason why Hali had the number of sacks he had this past year.

Maybe not Dorsey so much but I see Jackson as a dime a dozen type of player for sure.

[IHT]

but I see Jackson as a dime a dozen type of player for sure.

yep.

[IHT]

so what if Den signs Saturday/Clark. both are old(er), Saturday considered retirement... Clark can't block, slowing down, etc...

you guys make some of these people out to be all-world when they're not. they are part of T E A M!!!

[Wyndham]

They're crusty but Manning will get the best out of them. Won't hold the ball for ages so Saturday holds up, can get the ball accurately to Clark so he's relevant. Wouldn't happen in KC. Not sure what your point is either way.

[IHT]

here's a point that's pretty damn simple to understand:

why not focus on OUR team and making OUR team one that people have to gameplan against??

when's the last time anyone was really worried about our Defense? back in the days with DT and Neil Smith.
when's the last time anyone was really worried about our Offense? back in the days of Al Saunders as OC, with T. Green, P. Holmes, T. Gonzo, and that OL.

Saturday signed with the packers...

what we (KC) need to do is create our own identity and create our own matchup problems on both sides of the ball. lets focus on that instead of on aging/expensive former MVP who has less talent surrounding him than he's had his entire career who may/may not be physically capable of holding up any longer.

[IHT]

they did have a signing that i think will help them out a LOT...
CB Tracey Porter.

aside from the 95 yr old Champ Bailey, and a 2000 yr old Brian Dawkins (that they're contemplating releasing, from what i read), who do they have in the secondary that is worth a damn?
nobody, until Tracey Porter signed with them.

[LGM]

Secondary coverage (as like anything in the NFL game) doesn't stand alone. It's not simply your QB/WR's against our DB's. Blitz packages, pressure from the edge, having to pass because you're behind on the scoreboard, down/distance all play a factor.

Signing Adams and Porter help our DB's. Signing Dreessen helps against your pass rush, as well as our run/passing game. We're still looking at Tamme, and Dawkins wants to come back, and Denver wants him to as well. Not that it's here or there, other than his leadership.

We still have a hole at DT though, which if not addressed makes your signing of Hillis problematic.

[IHT]

LGM, i totally undersdtand how your pressure helped yoru secondary.
of course, Tebow and the ground game the last half the year is what kept you all in games in the first place, whcih allowed you all to get pressure.

it all goes together... i know that, a lot of ppl here don't know that, but i do. most just think you plop a big name QB in and, boom, you're a SB contender no matter what system and tools you have around that person... it's all just about the QB to most ppl. would manning be "all-world" if they ran it 55 times a game and threw it 8? did Tebow play well in an NFL offense? hellz no, so they went with what fit the personnel you all had... unlike KC where we ran it the 5th most in the NFL, next to last (or ties for last) in rush TDs, 27th in ypc, all while we had the best WR trio that i can remember here and only attempt 27th most passes a game while our best (and only real RB threat) was injured in week 2??

do you think teams should all of the sudden stop building their team just to focus on defending 1 single guy that they'll face twice a year?
i don't.
especially when we dont' know if the guy can play like he use to 4 years ago. and the team around him hasn't run the same offense for a decade. and the skill players around him aren't as good as the players he had the last time he was healthy.
i just don't get all the drama of focusing on beating 1 old, broke down, former MVP QB, who's starting off with a new team...

[dasher]

Secondary coverage (as like anything in the NFL game) doesn't stand alone. It's not simply your QB/WR's against our DB's. Blitz packages, pressure from the edge, having to pass because you're behind on the scoreboard, down/distance all play a factor.

It's not just signing / drafting a Corner out of the hope that 5 DBs will be on the field (although the Chiefs had 5 DBs over 55% of the time last year). The Chiefs need to fight to retain their solid depth at the DB positions. Whether Brown has developed or not... shouldn't affect this call. Most people have already stated that Routt is only a two year plan and is expected to play the slot (which doesn't mean 3rd best Receiver). Anyways, I think we still need 2 more DBs in the draft and a FA signing.