KATD Position Rankings Discussion Thread

[Goose31]

Added Justin Smith to the DE rankings.

Here is the thought process for ranking him. Again, you dont have to agree with it, but this similar to how I've done all of them and I've staying consistent:

I started by finding a like player to compare him against. I started with #73 Aaron Smith. Both are bigger Ends who play in a 3-4, are from the same era, and have played a similar number of games. Justin looks to be better than Aaron based on career stats (I'm going 80% on what the numbers say and 20% based on what I've seen and general impressions of the players.) Aaron has the size advantage, but Justin has 2:1 pro bowls, more sacks, and only a slightly lower AV. Justin has also played in more game although has been in the league 2 years less.

Next I compared him to #62 Patrick Kerney. Similar size, exact same number of games (though Smith in fewer seasons, so plus for Smith), each with 2 Pro Bowls, but Kerney has an All-Pro to his credit. That's a pretty big deal to be the best at your position. Smith has been great, but never an elite top two at his position. Kerney also has a rather large lead in sacks and sacks per game at 82.5 to 65. However, Smith's AV is higher. This one is close, but I'm going with Kerney here based on the All-Pro and 27% more sacks in the same number of games. I do understand that they play in different schemes, however since Kerney also has slightly better size, I will assume he could play in a 4-3 or 3-4 just as Smith.

So now I have Smith falling somewhere in between #62 and #73. I landed at #69 right ahead of Doug Better, Vanden Bosch and Mathis and behind Tommy Hart. That put Smith directly behind three guys who had over 100 sacks in their careers. That's a pretty special achievement and I couldnt see Smith passing those guys. Smith already has 4.5 sacks this season and I could see a 10 sack year and another Pro Bowl projecting him up the rankings five or six spots for next year. A fourth Pro Bowl and sack totals in the 80s would really start to put him in some top-notch company, probably in the Top 50.

I will update the rankings online to reflect his inclusion.

[MarkItAZero!]

Sounds about right to me Goose.

Are you going to have the QB rankings up today?

[Goose31]

Sounds about right to me Goose.

Are you going to have the QB rankings up today?

I think I'm going to go ahead and put it up now. I've run into a bit of a snag here, and I dont really know how to handle it. I just recently purchaed the updated sim game. I havent played it yet, but I've noticed they have some new categories. So, then I scrambled and added those categories to the rankings. Doesnt change the ranking order, but just the grades I usse to create the players. Well, some of these new categories I've been including such as Catch Ability, RAC, Doubleteam, etc. But it seems as though those are generated by the sim based on the stats. And it doesnt look like something I can change manually. I still dont have all the details because I havent yet started to build the players (been focused on the rankings.) Anyway, what I'm getting at is there might be some adjustment on the fly. The order on players wont change unless we talk about it, but the associated grades might have to. For instance, if there are fewer grading points to hand out, the lines of where players are graded from a 5 to 6 and 6 to 7 might change slightly.

In any case, I will make it as fair as I can. And keep in mind the grades dont matter as much as you might think. Its totally possible that a guy ranked a 7 might lead the league in sacks. And a Running back with a Breakaway rating of a 2 might lead the league in rushing. I still believe most of it will depend on the scheme you as coaches will utilize and the type of team you assemble, making sure they fit together. Ok, I'm off to post the QB ratings. There's a lot to them, so this may take a bit. I will also begin that post with an explanation because I did something different for the QBs.

[MarkItAZero!]

With Jim Brown listed as a FB, how will that affect him getting carries? Will the sim allow us to game plan him as a RB? 95% of the FB's drafted are blockers only.

Just something i came across while looking at RB/FB.

[Goose31]

With Jim Brown listed as a FB, how will that affect him getting carries? Will the sim allow us to game plan him as a RB? 95% of the FB's drafted are blockers only.

Just something i came across while looking at RB/FB.

The game doesnt really differentiate. Shouldnt be an issue. He could be used alongside Moose Johnston, not a problem. He could also be used in a single back formation. You really coudnt tell the difference between a Jim Brown and an Earl Campbell, eventhough one played FB exclusively, and the other HB exclusively.

[Goose31]

Alright, I've got an idea I will be working on this evening related to evening out the grades across all positions. I will make a post about it tomorrow.

[femurov]

When is the starting date for this thing?

[MarkItAZero!]

When is the starting date for this thing?

With the rankings up, i was preparing to send out a notice that we would be starting Monday at 10 AM EST.

[Goose31]

With the rankings up, i was preparing to send out a notice that we would be starting Monday at 10 AM EST.

I wasnt to start as soon as possible, but why dont we shoot for Wednesday morning. I am about to make a post to propose we re-do the grades to try to ensure some equality across all positions. If that works for everyone, I will need some time to rework the grades, and then update the sheets and then re-post. Once that's completed, I think we need to get a final approval from all owners. I dont want people coming back later and bitching about how they dont like how it was set-up.

How does that work for everyone?

[GiveUp2122]

Sounds good...make the changes and get them posted so we can get it cracking

[Goose31]

[DISCLAIMER: This is just an idea at the moment, havent yet verified if this will work]

One of the ideas we've been tossing around is that the current grading system doesnt seem fair across different positions. For instance, there is only 1 Offensive Tackle with a "10" grade. Yet there are seven Defensive Tackles with a "10" or better grade. I've come up with a system that tries to level the playing field across positions.

There are basically three different ways in which a player is created. Based on stats alone, based on points due to their rankings, and based on grades. The breakdown is as follows:
Stats alone: Quarterbacks. These players are almost exclusively based on their career stats, normalized to account for their era. The only aspect of their game that has a rating is their running/scrambling ability. So that's minor.
Rankings: HB, FB, WR, TE, K, P. These players are ranked (as all are) and then given a point value based on that ranking. Those points are distributed according to the players strengths. The higher the ranking, the more points. HBs, FBs, and TEs have 21 different point values, for example.
Grades: These players are build primarily based on their grades. It varies a little. For instance, O Linement only have grades. Linebackers have grades, but also get stats based on their number of sacks and interceptions. But the grade is the major piece.

This system will primarily apply to the positions in which the player is created based on their grade. So, this will apply mostly to O Line, D Line, LBs, and Defensive Backs.

First I attempted to come up with how many players I beleive will get drafted at each position. I first added up the mandatory selections at each position. Then I took a guess at what I feel are the most likely scenarios of how owners will build their team. I considered some teams will run a 4-3 defense, while others will run a 3-4. I also figured a few teams might want to run a 2 TE set as their base offense, while some might run a 3 WR set, and others might choose to have 2 HBs instead of a true FB. So, I came up with the following data:

QBs - 32, HBs - 36, FBs - 16, WRs - 70 and so on. I can provide the specifics if anyone cares. It came to 594 players. Only 560 wil be drafted, but I think that number is accurate for this exercise as some players will be counted at two positions. I dont want everyone to be playing with all 8's and better. So eventhough these players are the best the game has ever seen, I wanted the grades to be more spead out for the purpose of our game. That is where the strategy will come into play here. If we all have top rated players, its just luck.

So I decided that I wanted the field of grades to stretch from a 10 (or 10+ in cases where that's allowed) down to a 4. So, for instance, I estimated that 48 Offensive Tackles would be drafted. Therefore, when I re-shuffled the grades, I wanted to make sure that the 48th Tackles drafted would be ranked right in the middle of the 4's. That will show some separation between players. A 4 might not start for anyone's Offensive Line, but if you suffer an injury in that area, you will probably see a 4 taking the field.

GOATs are GOATs. So, I kept the top rated player(s) as the one guy who got the top score. As good as Jonathan Ogden was, I couldnt bring myself to giving him the same grade as Munoz. So the GOAT gets the top grade offered at his postion. At DT there are three GOATs because I cant seem to find much separation between Joe Greene, Bob Lilly, and Merlin Olsen. But I have a solution for that. So, here is an example of how the Offensive Tackles will be ranked:

GOAT - Gets the top allowable grade (either 10 or 10+)
The next group (either 9.5 in the case of O Linemen or 10 in the case of positions who allow a 10+) will be made up of 2x the number of starters at a position (so there are 2 starters at OT, 2 starters at OLB, 1 starter at Center, 1 starter at QB, etc.) minus the number of GOATs.
The 9's are based on 2x the number of starters.
The 8s are based on 2x the number of starters.
The 7's are based on 3x the number of starters.
The 6's are based on 3x the number of starters.
The 5's are based on 4x the number of starters.
The 4's are based on 5x the number of starters.
All remaining players get a rating of a 3, which is the lowest allowable grade.

Each position will be slightly different based on the number of players drafted at that position, but each of them will have the same number of elite players (9's or better) and each will have the estimated last guy drafted int that category rated in the middle of the 4's.

This wont have any affect on the QBs who are based solely on stats. I will try to replicate it as best I can for those positions based on points per their ranking. That will probably require me to lower the points for those towards the middle of the list and lower.

[GiveUp2122]

[DISCLAIMER: This is just an idea at the moment, havent yet verified if this will work]

One of the ideas we've been tossing around is that the current grading system doesnt seem fair across different positions. For instance, there is only 1 Offensive Tackle with a "10" grade. Yet there are seven Defensive Tackles with a "10" or better grade. I've come up with a system that tries to level the playing field across positions.

There are basically three different ways in which a player is created. Based on stats alone, based on points due to their rankings, and based on grades. The breakdown is as follows:
Stats alone: Quarterbacks. These players are almost exclusively based on their career stats, normalized to account for their era. The only aspect of their game that has a rating is their running/scrambling ability. So that's minor.
Rankings: HB, FB, WR, TE, K, P. These players are ranked (as all are) and then given a point value based on that ranking. Those points are distributed according to the players strengths. The higher the ranking, the more points. HBs, FBs, and TEs have 21 different point values, for example.
Grades: These players are build primarily based on their grades. It varies a little. For instance, O Linement only have grades. Linebackers have grades, but also get stats based on their number of sacks and interceptions. But the grade is the major piece.

This system will primarily apply to the positions in which the player is created based on their grade. So, this will apply mostly to O Line, D Line, LBs, and Defensive Backs.

First I attempted to come up with how many players I beleive will get drafted at each position. I first added up the mandatory selections at each position. Then I took a guess at what I feel are the most likely scenarios of how owners will build their team. I considered some teams will run a 4-3 defense, while others will run a 3-4. I also figured a few teams might want to run a 2 TE set as their base offense, while some might run a 3 WR set, and others might choose to have 2 HBs instead of a true FB. So, I came up with the following data:

QBs - 32, HBs - 36, FBs - 16, WRs - 70 and so on. I can provide the specifics if anyone cares. It came to 594 players. Only 560 wil be drafted, but I think that number is accurate for this exercise as some players will be counted at two positions. I dont want everyone to be playing with all 8's and better. So eventhough these players are the best the game has ever seen, I wanted the grades to be more spead out for the purpose of our game. That is where the strategy will come into play here. If we all have top rated players, its just luck.

So I decided that I wanted the field of grades to stretch from a 10 (or 10+ in cases where that's allowed) down to a 4. So, for instance, I estimated that 48 Offensive Tackles would be drafted. Therefore, when I re-shuffled the grades, I wanted to make sure that the 48th Tackles drafted would be ranked right in the middle of the 4's. That will show some separation between players. A 4 might not start for anyone's Offensive Line, but if you suffer an injury in that area, you will probably see a 4 taking the field.

GOATs are GOATs. So, I kept the top rated player(s) as the one guy who got the top score. As good as Jonathan Ogden was, I couldnt bring myself to giving him the same grade as Munoz. So the GOAT gets the top grade offered at his postion. At DT there are three GOATs because I cant seem to find much separation between Joe Greene, Bob Lilly, and Merlin Olsen. But I have a solution for that. So, here is an example of how the Offensive Tackles will be ranked:

GOAT - Gets the top allowable grade (either 10 or 10+)
The next group (either 9.5 in the case of O Linemen or 10 in the case of positions who allow a 10+) will be made up of 2x the number of starters at a position (so there are 2 starters at OT, 2 starters at OLB, 1 starter at Center, 1 starter at QB, etc.) minus the number of GOATs.
The 9's are based on 2x the number of starters.
The 8s are based on 2x the number of starters.
The 7's are based on 3x the number of starters.
The 6's are based on 3x the number of starters.
The 5's are based on 4x the number of starters.
The 4's are based on 5x the number of starters.
All remaining players get a rating of a 3, which is the lowest allowable grade.

Each position will be slightly different based on the number of players drafted at that position, but each of them will have the same number of elite players (9's or better) and each will have the estimated last guy drafted int that category rated in the middle of the 4's.

This wont have any affect on the QBs who are based solely on stats. I will try to replicate it as best I can for those positions based on points per their ranking. That will probably require me to lower the points for those towards the middle of the list and lower.

Soundslike the best way to do it...get it cracking

[MarkItAZero!]

I wasnt to start as soon as possible, but why dont we shoot for Wednesday morning. I am about to make a post to propose we re-do the grades to try to ensure some equality across all positions. If that works for everyone, I will need some time to rework the grades, and then update the sheets and then re-post. Once that's completed, I think we need to get a final approval from all owners. I dont want people coming back later and bitching about how they dont like how it was set-up.

How does that work for everyone?

Sounds fine to me. We'll shoot for Wednesday morning then.

[MarkItAZero!]

Let's see where that system leaves us after you adjust the rankings based on it Goose. Sounds like a solid idea.

[Goose31]

You guys are some slave drivers. I do have a job, you know ;)

Alright, it looks like this should work fine. I'm going to get as many as I can done today, but I doubt I will have it all done today. Working on it now.