Twins 2011: Year Long Thread

[Nastradamus]

I could see it happening in a few months depending how things go. If the Yanks' young pitchers aren't ready, if it looks like Petite isn't coming back, if a guy like Gibson is ready for Minnesota, if Minnesota's rotation holds up, particularly Slowey,Duensing and Baker etc. Baker is the big wildcard. He has great stuff and could be healthy and focused enogh to put it all together. So Minny may have 5 or 6 other pitchers that can hold rotation spots. Combined with Liriano's impending FA and his injury history, his dependency on that arm taxing slider and generally being a SP, it may not make sense for him to be a guy that Minnesota expends a large amount of payroll on. They only have so much to work with and they have Mauer making huge money and Morneau and Cuddyer's contracts both coming up soon. At least one will get extended if not both IMO. There was an article today about how Cuddyer has no desire to leave Minnesota, as he is their longest tenured player. OTOH, Liriano is their most talented pitcher and it woudl hurt a little to lose him. However, if you get either Betances or Banuelos plus Joba and maybe one more prospect, ideally some sort of lefty SP, it'd probably be a shrewd move to make. Liriano is a risky guy for a middling payroll team to pay, period.

[tommyboy]

he's also pretty cost controlled for the next 2 years....

[Nastradamus]

No doubt, but his value has great potential to go down if he struggles, gets hurt or just generally is allowed to get closer to free agency. I'm not necessarily saying that trading him is the right move, but I can see a scenario where it is. If we get to May and he is one of the key reasons the Twins are holding down 1st place in the division, then you can't trade him at last for now.

[ducky]

I could see it happening in a few months depending how things go. If the Yanks' young pitchers aren't ready, if it looks like Petite isn't coming back, if a guy like Gibson is ready for Minnesota, if Minnesota's rotation holds up, particularly Slowey,Duensing and Baker etc. Baker is the big wildcard. He has great stuff and could be healthy and focused enogh to put it all together. So Minny may have 5 or 6 other pitchers that can hold rotation spots. Combined with Liriano's impending FA and his injury history, his dependency on that arm taxing slider and generally being a SP, it may not make sense for him to be a guy that Minnesota expends a large amount of payroll on. They only have so much to work with and they have Mauer making huge money and Morneau and Cuddyer's contracts both coming up soon. At least one will get extended if not both IMO. There was an article today about how Cuddyer has no desire to leave Minnesota, as he is their longest tenured player. OTOH, Liriano is their most talented pitcher and it woudl hurt a little to lose him. However, if you get either Betances or Banuelos plus Joba and maybe one more prospect, ideally some sort of lefty SP, it'd probably be a shrewd move to make. Liriano is a risky guy for a middling payroll team to pay, period.

Man you simply do not understand where the Twins are.

Trading Liriano would be a publicity BLOODBATH for this team. The fans in MN already are down on the Twins because of their lack of success in the postseason because they lack top end pitching. Trading their most talented starting pitcher to the team that has consistently knocked them out of the playoffs would set off an absolute firestorm. Twins management might as well come out with a press conference and tell everyone they don’t give a crap about winning because it would have the exact same reaction here in the Twins Cities.

What would Tiger fan's reaction be if they traded Verlander for prospects right now???

The only scenario where they even would contemplate trading Liriano is if the Yankees called and offered literally double what a pitcher of his quality is normally valued at. So unless you think the Yankees are going to call and offer Joba + 5 of their top 10 prospects, this isn't happening.

Also we are NOT a middling payroll team. We will once again be in the top 25% of the league in payroll this year and probably the following couple years as well.

This is and always has been a fake story. There never was any chance of the Twins trading Liriano this offseason. The simple fact is that they would never get enough (over what they would get if they decided to trade him next year) to make it worth it to move him this offseason. He is worth a couple of decent prospects, maybe a ML player like Joba and a middling prospect.....they will get pretty much that this year OR next year for him so it doesn't make any sense to GREATLY hurt this years chances at winning by shipping him now. Teams with $120 million payrolls and a legit chance to win the division don't do that.

[Fandango]

The Twins still have Liriano locked up for a couple more seasons due to player service requirements right? If that is the case, he won't be going anywhere unless there is big clubhouse drama or a team overpays to get him.

[ducky]

The Twins still have Liriano locked up for a couple more seasons due to player service requirements right? If that is the case, he won't be going anywhere unless there is big clubhouse drama or a team overpays to get him.

Yep. This year and next year he is only arbitration eligible and then will be a full free agent after that.

...meaning they can have him pitch for them this year and still get full value via a trade for him next offseason if they decide he is too expensive to keep.

[Nastradamus]

Man you simply do not understand where the Twins are.

Do Twins fans really have to say something like this everytime I'm not in 100% perfect harmony with their opinions? I understand it very well, we just happen to disagree. I'm not a complete retard because I don't think the Twins can re-sign every player they like for 30 million a year. Sorry.

[Nastradamus]

Yep. This year and next year he is only arbitration eligible and then will be a full free agent after that.

...meaning they can have him pitch for them this year and still get full value via a trade for him next offseason if they decide he is too expensive to keep.

When has this ever shown to be true? Guys dealt with 1 or less seasons left on their deal always fetch less in trade value. Teams concerned with getting full value will typically want to deal the player in question 2 years before he hits FA, or at least a yaer and a half(trade deadline year before his final year). You

[Nastradamus]

Trading Liriano would be a publicity BLOODBATH for this team. The fans in MN already are down on the Twins because of their lack of success in the postseason because they lack top end pitching. Trading their most talented starting pitcher to the team that has consistently knocked them out of the playoffs would set off an absolute firestorm. Twins management might as well come out with a press conference and tell everyone they don’t give a crap about winning because it would have the exact same reaction here in the Twins Cities.

What would Tiger fan's reaction be if they traded Verlander for prospects right now???

The only scenario where they even would contemplate trading Liriano is if the Yankees called and offered literally double what a pitcher of his quality is normally valued at. So unless you think the Yankees are going to call and offer Joba + 5 of their top 10 prospects, this isn't happening.

Also we are NOT a middling payroll team. We will once again be in the top 25% of the league in payroll this year and probably the following couple years as well.

This is and always has been a fake story. There never was any chance of the Twins trading Liriano this offseason. The simple fact is that they would never get enough (over what they would get if they decided to trade him next year) to make it worth it to move him this offseason. He is worth a couple of decent prospects, maybe a ML player like Joba and a middling prospect.....they will get pretty much that this year OR next year for him so it doesn't make any sense to GREATLY hurt this years chances at winning by shipping him now. Teams with $120 million payrolls and a legit chance to win the division don't do that.

The Twins are spending more these days, but they still aren't going to be the Yankees, sorry. They are an extremely savvy franchise that isn't afraid to let popular players walk due to a "publicity bloodbath". Even if they were afraid, someone is going to have to go soon that fits that description. They likely can't and/or won't pay all 3 of Cuddyer(seems to be a fan favorite, longest tenured Twin),Morneau(pure star when healthy and an anchor for this team) and Liriano. This is the same type of bull**** I took for suggesting Hardy might be dealt. I'm not the one making the decision here! I'm just offering an opinion on what the Twins may end up doing.

Like I said, you get the most value about 1 and a half to two years before free agency. The Twins are competing, which I quite plainly mentioned in my post on the subject, so not sure where the hostility comes from, and they may not decide to deal him right away. However, if they slip out of contention or get the right offer, it is something that will be considered. READ THIS VERY CAREFULLY: I DO NOT CARE IF THE STORY ABOUT IT WAS FAKE OR NOT, THAT IS SO FAR FROM THE POINT ITS NOT FUNNY. I'm sorry but i just don't get why you think that story is what will drive the Twins decision or my opinion for that matter.

Liriano hadn't pitched good in 2 years before last year IIRC. He has a pretty ugly injury history and as TWINS fans have noted on this very board, his slider is extremely taxing on his arm, which increases the likelihood of further injury. Therefore, if you wait to trade him, there is a good chance his value may drop all the way to zero if he hurts the elbow again. sometimes you have to be preemptive. I'm sorry I said middling payroll, but the Twins aren't going to be the Yankees. They also have an owner who is kind of cheap and I just saw my Tigers jump to that 125 level only to realize they had overextended themselves. Tigers fans made the exact same arguments as you are making right now before we traded Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson. Its about payroll management in the end and using your assets the best you can, NOT payroll slashing and dumping your best players.

Minnesota probably isn't looking to deal Liriano right now, but we'll see what happens. Duensing has secured his spot in the rotation, so they have a lefty, Pavano is re-signed, Baker may be healthy this year and they have guys capable of being #3 or 4 calbier starters who won't even make the rotation potentially in Blackburn and Slowey. They have rotation depth and maybe more talent than people believe if Slowey and/or Baker are healthy. Gibson will be ready sooner than later and they'd likely get an MLB ready or near ready prospect in return for Liriano, an SP that is, so its not like they are going to fall apart if Liriano leaevs.

I understand FL's value and the fact that his stuff is the best on the staff. I understand that they may be trying to make a WS run this year, meaning Liriano isn't expendable. However, I felt they should have made a WS run in Santana's last year too, but they didn't, they got value and did what was best for the long term health of the franchise. It is certainly reasonable to think a franchise like the Twins, the model for long term health as a franchise, would make such a move with Liriano. Not to mention you have teh chance to catch the Yanks while they are vulnerable, so you might be able to rip them off. Get say, Banuelos,Joba,Montero or something like that.

[seahawksfan837]

Didn't mean to ignite a fire with that comment. Just curious to the Twins' fans thoughts on the idea.

[tommyboy]

i don't think the twins will resign liriano, so a trade is probably likely when a) the twins aren't in contention at the trade deadline, or b) next off season. If the twins weren't willing to pay santana, who had little injury history, I can't see them backing up the bank truck for liriano.

[VikingFan2k2]

i don't think the twins will resign liriano, so a trade is probably likely when a) the twins aren't in contention at the trade deadline, or b) next off season. If the twins weren't willing to pay santana, who had little injury history, I can't see them backing up the bank truck for liriano.

Well that's the real key. We can't get screwed again with how the Santana trade went down. If Liriano lights it up this year and isn't extended, we are looking at a similar situation, and Billy Smith can't go down that road again and fail.

[ducky]

Do Twins fans really have to say something like this everytime I'm not in 100% perfect harmony with their opinions? I understand it very well, we just happen to disagree. I'm not a complete retard because I don't think the Twins can re-sign every player they like for 30 million a year. Sorry.

Easy there buddy. I'm just writing what I believe. I in no way think you are a retard.....quite the opposite in fact. I just think in the case of Liriano you are a little off base as you don't have the full perspective of how the Twins fan base would react to a Liriano trade.

So if anything I wrote was insulting then I apoligize. You are one of my favorite posters here and I enjoy discussing/argueing with you on this and many other things sports related and anything I write now or in the future is just trying to lay out my points (maybe sometimes too aggressively) but never mean to insult. I enjoy you playing devil's advocate for all us MN homers.

[The Q]

if they can get away with trading Johan, trading Liriano will be cake.

[Nastradamus]

Easy there buddy. I'm just writing what I believe. I in no way think you are a retard.....quite the opposite in fact. I just think in the case of Liriano you are a little off base as you don't have the full perspective of how the Twins fan base would react to a Liriano trade.

So if anything I wrote was insulting then I apoligize. You are one of my favorite posters here and I enjoy discussing/argueing with you on this and many other things sports related and anything I write now or in the future is just trying to lay out my points (maybe sometimes too aggressively) but never mean to insult. I enjoy you playing devil's advocate for all us MN homers.

ah its all good, I can take things too hard