Twins 2011: Year Long Thread

[ducky]

This is just a really bad rumor by a REALLY bad reporter who obviously is just flat out lying about the situation.

How do I know this is just rumors??? Look at the numbers that were just leaked. Him asking for a 3 year $39 million contract is so ridiculous that it has to be false. He is price controlled for two more seasons. This year he is going to earn $4.3 million....next year at the VERY most he will make $10 million (and even that is really high estimation). That means he was asking the Twins for $25 million in order to get one extra year before his free agency year?!?

Nope. Its just really crappy reporting. The numbers are so far off it couldn't possibly be real.

The only other scenario is that the reporter misunderstood the situation and Liriano was asking for 3 years and $39 million for the years AFTER his contract is up and was really asking for a contract in the neighborhood of 5 year $54 million. But even that isn't all that realistic because the Twins aren't going to sign a guy with Liriano's injury history to a 5 year deal and his agent would have to know that and (if he had any sort of common sense) would have asked for a reasonable deal that only buys out the 1st year or two of his free agency years just to get that guaranteed contract locked up for a pitcher with a really questionable arm.

IMO they will resign Liriano to a 3 or 4 year deal AFTER this coming season (they will want to see him do it again and make sure that 2010 wasn't just a fluke) buying out his 1st 2 or 3 years of free agency. This is all just rumors that amount to little.

And also you can see how the Twins are setting it up IMO....Liriano officially hits the FA market and becomes expensive AFTER the 2012 season. Which just "coincidently" is the same year that Pavano and his contract falls off the books. Liriano will likely be the guy that takes over that "ace" starting pitching contract slot after 2012 that they have Pavano in right now.

[PsychoViking]

I doubt it. JoeC is a very good beat reporter.

[ducky]

I doubt it. JoeC is a very good beat reporter.

...but look at the numbers. He either is lying (or his source is lying) or he completely misunderstood. There was absolutely no way that Liriano's could have asked for a 3 year $39 million deal.

[Nastradamus]

Apparently the Twins are considering dealing Liriano, for the right price. He wants 3 years $39M for a contract extension. That is a bit pricey IMO, although not terrible. He has a great slider but I'm not as big of a fan as most. He throws way too many pitches, lacks composure, and will probably blow his arm again because of his delivery and the fact that he throws the slider so often (30%+).

If they could get a stud pitching or IF prospect in return I'd be fine with that.

They'll probably have to trade someone, though. I don't know that they can pay Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, and Baker what they are due, especially with Slowey also being due more money soon.

http://1500espn.com/sportswire/Sourc...ht_price021011

Yah, makes sense for the reasons you list. If you keep him, 3/39 is pretty fair and established. The Arroyo and Lily types are getting 3/33-5

[Nastradamus]

...but look at the numbers. He either is lying (or his source is lying) or he completely misunderstood. There was absolutely no way that Liriano's could have asked for a 3 year $39 million deal.

Yah, the numbers don't add up. A 3/39 extension after this year's arbitration number makes sense though. Say he gets 10 on the high side like you guessed. That'd be a 2/29 extension. A little high, but if #3s are getting 10-12, Liriano, arguably a top 2 guy when healthy, can get 14.5, albeit on a shorter deal than many. It'll be interesting to see who the Twins do and don't pay going forward.

[Fandango]

A little high, but if #3s are getting 10-12, Liriano, arguably a top 2 guy when healthy, can get 14.5, albeit on a shorter deal than many.

Arguably a #2? I would say arguably one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL when healthy.

[ducky]

Yah, the numbers don't add up. A 3/39 extension after this year's arbitration number makes sense though. Say he gets 10 on the high side like you guessed. That'd be a 2/29 extension. A little high, but if #3s are getting 10-12, Liriano, arguably a top 2 guy when healthy, can get 14.5, albeit on a shorter deal than many. It'll be interesting to see who the Twins do and don't pay going forward.

Edit: Misread what you said. nm.

[ducky]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...115936819.html

Not surprisingly Joe C has printed a retraction:

I was also told that Liriano's camp did not specifically ask for a three-year, $39 million contract. I'd heard those numbers from a source but tried to be clear I couldn't be sure about the specifics. (Presumably, that would have been a three-year extension for Liriano added to this year's $4.3 million, which would give him a four-year deal similar to the ones Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson have signed in recent years.)

Again, I don't have the specifics. Apologies for the confusion, but the larger premise still holds: Long-term talks with Liriano have gone nowhere, he doesn't appear to be in the Twins plans past 2012, and they are open to trading him, as soon as next month.

I knew the numbers were way too far off to be real and he is now backtracking as fast as he can so the report doesn't look false which IMO it probably was from the get go.

[PsychoViking]

Hearing those numbers from a source isn't really a retraction.

[Nastradamus]

Arguably a #2? I would say arguably one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL when healthy.

I only said that because of his injuries. So is he paid as a top 2 guy? The whole when healthy thing is what makes the difference, not talent/production

[Nastradamus]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...115936819.html

Not surprisingly Joe C has printed a retraction:



I knew the numbers were way too far off to be real and he is now backtracking as fast as he can so the report doesn't look false which IMO it probably was from the get go.

not much of a retraction really. That's exactly what I posted that I thought he meant. Makes perfect sense to ask for 3/39, or basically 4/43.5

[ducky]

Article 1

long-term contract talks went nowhere this offseason, with Liriano's camp asking for a three-year, $39 million deal.

Article 2

I was also told that Liriano's camp did not specifically ask for a three-year, $39 million contract.

Those are two sections of the articles directly copied and pasted that were written on one day and then the next.

[ducky]

not much of a retraction really. That's exactly what I posted that I thought he meant. Makes perfect sense to ask for 3/39, or basically 4/43.5

But he just signed the one year deal days ago AFTER long term contract talks broke down. Which means that at no point during those long term talks would his agent ask for 3 year $39 contract. Those numbers would never come up seperated like that in the talks. So why would an agent or a source seperate them like that??? The answer is they wouldn't and that this is just simply a case of a writer making something up and forgetting how MLB contract work and not realizing where Liriano is in his arbitration years. Certainly not the 1st time in the last couple of years that we have seen the Star Trib publish things that were obviously lies as soon as it hit the paper.

The rumor never made sense from the get go. The numbers were off and maybe most importantly: If Liriano would have been traded yesterday what do you think everyone's reaction around MLB baseball would have been??? Pure and utter shock. And the reaction would have happened because it makes no sense to trade Liriano contract talks or no contract talks. Teams spending as much as the Twins are on payroll don't ditch their #2 starter who is under control for 2 more full seasons a week before pitchers and catcher report.

[Nastradamus]

No, he would have asked for a 3/39 extension, which is perfectly normal. He obviously wasn't going to have this year bought out in arb. You are making a mountain out of a molehill, an extremely minor semantics issue.

[ducky]

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