Projecting the 2007 compensatory picks

[Johnboy]

I use the total average of the contract without NLTBE incentives, and it seems to mesh with what the NFL uses.

If that's the case, how will the New England WR contracts be calculated? From my understanding, NLTBE incentives are based on the prior year's statistics. Therefore, it would stand to reason that Stallworth's contract might be an average of what was reported, but Washington's would not since he only had 9rec for 115yds.

Obviously we'd still have to see how much they play to determine the full compensatory draft pick story, but this example would help me understand a lot more of the overall picture.

Also, where are you getting all the contract info from? I've read your postings in the Cowboys forum and it seems like you have NFLPA-level info. I'm jealous...(stuck with waiting for USA Today's reports and bad info from local media on contract details).

[Johnboy]

I'll post a complete review probably tomorrow. But basically, the Cincinnati pick was a "net value" pick (go back and read my original post for the description of those). The San Francisco pick was for Andre Carter, the San Diego pick was for Ben Leber, and the one Jacksonville pick I missed was because Stockar McDougle didn't qualify (and therefore didn't count as a signing by them). The lowest-paid players that qualified signed for $750,000, and McDougle was the highest-paid player who didn't qualify ($803,000).

Adam, any chance you are still going to publish a review? Thanks in advance!

[Longboysfan]

I was reading the first few posts.
Then took out my Ourlads guide and checked the NFL site also.
Dam.
Spot on match.
The scale to slide into the third from the fourth round is someone pushing for the Raiders or a dollar amount.
Or
The powers to be feel that this is the cut mark.

The only whiff I see here is the San Diego pick.

Impressive - most impressive.

Thanks.

[Avelek]

I don't understand the point of this :( MAybe I'm missing something, but weren't these released a weak after this post? Seems like a whole lot of work for this information which is given a week later.

[AdamJT13]

Sorry it took so long for this, but I decided to do a little more research and double-checking, then I had some other things that took most of my free time.

As I said earlier in this thread, I got 20 correct, with five more off by one round -- as expected, it was my worst since I first tried it in 1998. (If I wanted to inflate my percentage, I'd count the Indianapolis and Baltimore fifth-rounders as correct, since I did project them getting fifth-rounders. But the ones they got weren't for the players I projected, so I'm not counting them.)

While my number of correct picks was low, I was greatly encouraged by the fact that the first 15 comps I projected were in the exact same order that they were awarded. That made me think I was close to getting the proper ratio for contract value vs. playing time. So after the comps were awarded, I went back and tried to re-create the exact order of all 29 true comp picks using the known qualifying players and cutoff values -- and I was able to do just that. In the process, I learned a few things that should help next year (assuming the formula doesn't change) --

-- A player signed will never cancel out a player lost whose comp value falls in a higher round. If a team loses one player with a third-round comp value and another player with a seventh-round comp value, and if the team signs a player with a fourth-round value, the player signed will cancel out the seventh-round loss, not the third-round loss. (This was the mistake I made with San Francisco this year. The same thing happened with Seattle two years ago.)

-- Signed players always cancel out the player lost with the HIGHEST value in the same round or lower (but as I said above, never a player in a higher round). If a team loses a player with a high seventh-round comp value and another player with a low seventh-round comp value, and if that team signs a player with an even lower seventh-round comp value, the signed player would cancel out the higher seventh-rounder, even though his value was closer to (and even less than) the low seventh-rounder.

-- The value of contracts used for the equation does not include any workout bonuses or incentives, any other bonuses based on reaching an incentive, or any salary escalators. However, it does appear that incentives MIGHT be included when determining whether a player qualifies for the comp equation -- ie., if the contract value is slightly too low but includes a large NLTBE incentive, the player still might qualify. But even in that case, the NLTBE wouldn't be included when determining the player's comp value.

-- Special-teams playing time is not a factor, other than for punters and kickers. For position players, only their playing time on offense or defense is used.

Using those new guidelines and with the advantage of knowing all of the cutoff points (between rounds and the minimum needed to qualify), I was able to replicate the exact order of all 29 true comp picks this year and all 24 true comps last year. That might or might not help me next year, depending on whether I can come close to estimating all of next year's cutoff points.

Here are the specifics of this year's comp picks --

3 - SD -- Drew Brees (9.817, 16 GP/16 GS, Pro Bowl)
3 - SF -- Julian Peterson (7.714, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
3 - IND -- Edgerrin James (7.500, 16/16)
3 - OAK -- Charles Woodson (6.050, 16/16)

4 - PIT -- Chris Hope (5.098, 16/16)
4 - ATL -- Kevin Shaffer (5.043, 16/16)
4 - BAL -- Anthony Weaver (5.300, 15/15)
4 - SF -- Andre Carter (4.643, 16/16)
4 - IND -- David Thornton (4.450, 16/13)
4 - BAL -- Ma'ake Kemoeatu (4.600, 16/14)

5 - PIT -- Antwaan Randle El (4.464, 16/16)
5 - NE -- David Givens (4.800, 5/5, placed on IR)
5 - SD -- Ben Leber (3.950, 15/10)
5 - IND -- Larry Tripplett (3.607, 16/16)
5 - BAL -- Chester Taylor (3.500, 15/15)

6 - BAL -- Will Demps (2.255, 16/16)
6 - NE -- Tom Ashworth (2.600, 16/6)
6 - NE -- Adam Vinatieri (2.400, 13 GP)
6 - SEA -- Marquand Manuel (1.960, 16/16)

7 - GB -- Craig Nall (1.417, 0/0)
7 - ATL -- Barry Stokes (1.092, 11/11)
7 - TB -- Todd Steussie (0.850, 16/15)
7 - TB -- Jameel Cook (0.980, 12/6)
7 - NE -- Tim Dwight (1.025, 9/2, placed on IR)
7 - STL -- Jamie Martin (1.005, 16/0)
7 - STL -- Tyoka Jackson (0.890, 15/0)
7 - NYG -- Shaun Williams (0.750, 12/12)
7 - JAX -- Kenny Wright (0.750, 16/9)
7 - JAX -- Jamie Winborn (0.800, 14/0)
7 - CIN -- Net value
7 - OAK -- Non-compensatory
7 - DET -- Non-compensatory

[shlynch]

Very interesting analysis, Adam.

Any idea what the approximate cutoff thresholds for each round would be this year? That seems to be primarily comp based rather than playing time, if I understand your analysis correctly.

One other question: why do you think that David Thornton was a 4 while Randle El was a 5? Is it % of snaps?

[mattwill]

As we all know, AdamJT13 is the guru of Compensatory Pick projection/analysis. Using his posts as a guide, I put together the following analysis of how Comp Picks may fall this year. I expect there will be plenty of errors, but I said, "What the heck, the worst that can happen is I make a fool of myself."

To get some sense of contract values, I went to the NFLPA and USA Today websites, as well as Ian Whetstone's Cap Page. The Comp Pick list below shoold be good if my contract values are right. It will be way off if they aren't.

The key to scanning for a Comp Pick offset, if I understand Adam's explanation correctly, is that the offset must be for a lost player in the same round or lower.

For instance, the Bills loss of Nate Clements would be offset by their signing of Derrick Dockery because both those players contract values would appear to qualify for a 3rd Round pick. The Cowboys signing of Leonard Davis would offset their loss of Al Johnson (the highest ranked Cowboy loss). The Bengals signing of Eric Steinbach would offset their loss of Dennis Northcutt (the highest ranked Browns loss). The Patriots signing of Adalius Thomas would offset their loss of Daniel Graham.

So here is the full list (including offsets).

Round - Player Name - Team - Average Annual Comp
O-1 - Nate Clements - Bills 10.000 -- Offset by Derrick Dockery Redskins Bills 7.000
3-1 - Leonard Davis - Cardinals 7.086
3-2 - Eric Steinbach - Bengals 7.071
3-3 - Adalius Thomas - Ravens 7.000
3-4 - Derrick Dockery - Redskins 7.000
3-5 - Patrick Kerney - Falcons 6.107
O-2 - Daniel Graham - Patriots 6.000 -- Offset by Adalius Thomas Ravens Patriots 7.000

In 2007 the NFL awarded 4 Third Round Comp Picks. Of the highest seven contracts, two would have an offset, and therefore it would appear that either four or five qualify for a 3rd Round Comp Pick. The cut off for 3rd Round picks is a bit arbitrary, and will either be after Dockery's $7 million contract, or after Graham's $6 million contract. The contract between Dockery's and Graham's is Kerney's contract at $6.107 million. Because Kerney is going to the Pro Bowl, I imagine the NFL will push his comp pick up into the higher Round, and since Graham is one of the offsets, I believe the 4th Round comps will begin with Dewayne White. So, bottom-line 5 Third Round Comp Picks are likely this year.

4-1 - Dewayne White - Buccaneers 5.800
4-2 - Ahman Green - Packers 5.750
4-3 - Donte' Stallworth - Eagles 5.517
4-4 - Deon Grant - Jaguars 5.304
4-5 - Drew Bennett - Titans 5.000
4-6 - Langston Walker - Raiders 5.000
O-3 - London Fletcher - Bills 5.000 -- Offset by Langston Walker Bills Raiders 5.000
4-7 - Michael Lewis - Eagles 5.000

In 2007 the NFL awarded 6 Fourth Round Comp Picks. Using AdamJT13's guidelines, based on Average annual compensation there appear to be eight players who would qualify for Fourth Round awards; however, there is one offset in that group of eight. So, bottom-line I see 7 Fourth Round Comp Picks as likely this year, but only if all the $5 million contracts actually are valued that way.

O-4 - Kevin Curtis - Rams 4.850 -- Offset by Drew Bennett Titans Rams 5.000
5-1 - Tony Pashos - Ravens 4.800
O-5 - Jeff Garcia - Eagles 4.750 -- Offset by Kevin Curtis Rams Eagles 4.850
5-2 - Mike Gandy - Bills 4.667
5-3 - Donnie Edwards - Chargers 4.500
O-6 - Al Johnson - Cowboys 4.375 -- Offset by Leonard Davis Cardinals Cowboys 7.086
5-4 - Kenyon Coleman - Cowboys 4.079

In 2007 the NFL awarded 5 Fifth Round Comp Picks. Based on Average annual compensation there appear to be seven players who would qualify for Fifth Round awards, but three of those comps are offset, including Jeff Garcia.

6-1 - Dominic Rhodes - Colts 3.750
O-7 - Napoleon Harris - Vikings 3.700 -- Offset by Visanthe Shiancoe NY Giants Vikings 3.600
6-2 - Visanthe Shiancoe - NY Giants 3.600
O-8 - Jeremy Newberry - 49ers 3.500 -- Offset by Nate Clements Bills 49ers 10.000
O-9 - Dennis Northcutt - Browns 3.410 -- Offset by Robaire Smith Titans Browns 3.000
O-10 - Sean Mahan - Buccaneers 3.400 -- Offset by Jeff Garcia Eagles Buccaneers 4.750
6-3 - Nick Harper - Colts 3.133
6-4 - Cato June - Colts 3.000
O-11 - Bobby Wade - Titans 3.000 -- Offset by Nick Harper Colts Titans 3.133
6-5 - Ovie Mughelli - Ravens 3.000
6-6 - Robaire Smith - Titans 3.000
6-7 - Roderick Hood - Eagles 3.000
6-8 - Terrence Holt - Lions 3.000
6-9 - Damion McIntosh - Dolphins 3.000

The Sixth Round was the toughest one to predict, because of the seven contracts all worth $3 million annually. In 2007 the NFL awarded 4 Sixth Round Comp Picks. Without the offsets, that number would be easy to match, but four of the seven contracts over $3 million are offset. So, bottom-line I think there will be 9 Sixth Round Comp Picks, but as many as six of those could slide down into the 7th Round.

O-12 - Tully Banta-Cain - Patriots 2.925 -- Offset by Donte' Stallworth Eagles Patriots 5.517
O-13 - Antwan Peek - Texans 2.900 -- Offset by Ahman Green Packers Texans 5.750
O-14 - Brian Russell - Browns 2.700 -- Offset by Robaire Smith Titans Browns 3.000
O-15 - Kyle Brady - Jaguars 2.600 -- Offset by Tony Pashos Ravens Jaguars 4.800
O-16 - Ken Hamlin - Seahawks 02.550 -- Offset by Patrick Kerney Falcons Seahawks 6.107
7-1 - Kelley Washington - Bengals 2.500
7-2 - Kevin Kaesviharn - Bengals 2.500
7-3 - Travis Fisher - Rams 2.250
O-17 - Cooper Carlisle - Broncos 2.200 -- Offset by Daniel Graham Patriots Broncos 6.000
O-18 - Ashley Lelie - Falcons 2.150 -- Offset by Ovie Mughelli Ravens Falcons 3.000
O-19 - David Bowens - Dolphins 2.033 -- Offset by Jay Feely NY Giants Dolphins 1.467
O-20 - Eric Johnson - 49ers 2.000 -- Offset by Michael Lewis Eagles 49ers 5.000
7-4 - Aubrayo Franklin - Ravens 1.956
7-5 - Shawn Barber - Eagles 1.833
7-6 - Alfonso Boone - Bears 1.800
O-21 - Jordan Black - Chiefs 1.750 -- Offset by Napoleon Harris Vikings Chiefs 3.700
7-7 - Sammy Morris - Dolphins 1.650
O-22 - T.J. Duckett - Redskins 1.500 -- Offset by London Fletcher Bills Redskins 5.000
7-8 - Jay Feely - NY Giants 1.467
7-9 - Chris Draft - Panthers 1.425

It is not clear to me how many total Comp Picks will be awarded. The uncertainty comes from how the NFL will deal with "lost picks." For this exercise I went with 34 picks total (which may prove to be too many).

My logic in choosing 34 is that the number of Comp picks has historically been set by the NFL at a level so that the total number of picks in each year's Draft comes to 255. If that is correct, the number of standard picks in a Draft is 224, but this year will only be 221 because the Patriots have lost their 1st Round pick and two other teams have forfeited picks by selecting players in the Supplemental Draft. Therefore the number of Comp picks this year should be 34. 9 Seventh Round comp picks will get us to 34. There appear to be 20 players who signed for $1.4 million per year or more.

It is almost certain that the NFL will look at the players lost with contract values below Chris Draft's to determine if the aggregate losses of some teams are worthy of a pick. I analyzed the 46 players whose comp puts them below Draft. I continued the offset process through those 46, and ended up with 20 players without offsets. Then I looked at those 20 at a team level, which yielded the following:

49ers = 2 for $ 1.25 million total
Bears = 3 for $2.98 million total
Bengals = 2 for $2.2 million total
Dolphins = 1 for $1.03 million total
Falcons = 1 for $1.37 million total
Giants = 1 for $1.24 million total
Panthers = 2 for $1.27 million total
Redskins = 1 for $1.35 million total
Seahawks = 2 for $1.2 million total

Given the $1.42 million amount of the 34th player in the current comp list, only the Bears and Bengals would appear to be in line for consideration for an aggregate loss comp pick.

The last two players in the comp pick list are Chris Draft and Jay Feely. Backing them out to accomodate the Bears and Bengals raises the Giants from one uncompensated pick to two with a $2.71 million total, and the Panthers from one uncompensated pick to two with a $2.70 million total. That would give each of those teams higher aggregate losses than the Bengals. So the Bears can be dealt with, but not the Bengals unless you go futher up the pick list.

Moving up one more to the Dolphins pick for Sammy Morris creates the same problem. Backing Morris out raises the Dolphins aggregate to $2.68 million.

Next up is Alphonso Boone of the Bears, which raises the Bears' aggregate losses to $4.78 million, but at least doesn't add another team. So if we stop there the final picks would be the Bears for their aggregate losses, the Dolphins for Morris, the Giants for Feely, the Panthers for Draft, and the Bengals for their aggregate losses.

If by some chance the NFL decides that the Bears deserve two of the final picks, the next player is Shawn Barber of the Eagles at $1.833 million. The question then becomes do you take out Barber and replace him by the Bengals aggregate? The Bengals already would appear to have three picks, so the bottom-line question ends up being, "Who gets a fourth pick, the Bengals or the Eagles?"

[raiderfan007]

Cool stuff.

I'll gladly take a 4th-5th rounder for Langston.

Appreciate the effort, by the way.

[rabal]

Mattwill....the max number of comp picks is 32

Very good effort and lets see how you do compared to Adam :D

[Urgent]

Note that it is very tricky to do this on a player-by-player basis. The first step is to determine if the team itself qualifies.

As has been discussed, if a team loses one $10mm/year unrestricted free agent, and then signs three $2mm/year unrestricted free agents, they would not qualify for compensation (other than at the very end of the seventh, if 32 are not otherwise earned).

[mattwill]

Urgent, you are absolutely correct. You should see the spreadsheet I created to get this far. It is very complex, with lots of color coding to match up the individual offsets.

Rabal, no matter how I do when compared to Adam, he will always be the king of this process. I was simply anal-retentive enough to take the blueprint he had mapped out for us in previous years and then slog through putting the individual player detail into the spreadsheet.

I did this back in the first week of January for posting on the Eagles Message Board, and then PMed Adam to see if he wanted to review it for reasonableness. He said that he wouldn't be looking at any of the detail data until early March, and then we could share info here on KFFL. So I waited until now to post. Once Adam posts it will be interesting first and foremost to see how hee sees things, and then secondarilly at how my maiden voyage compares to his latest effort.

[ABryant88]

I'd be suprised to see that many 3rds go out. Not to mention The Redskins signed URFA London Fletcher and David Macklin so they're ineligable to recieve a comp pick

[mhd24]

I'd be suprised to see that many 3rds go out. Not to mention The Redskins signed URFA London Fletcher and David Macklin so they're ineligable to recieve a comp pick

Skins lost Dockery, Holdman, Wright, and Duckett, and signed Macklin, Fletcher. I'm not sure if Stoutmire counts because he was signed in week 2.

[mattwill]

ABryant and mhd24, the Redskins loss of Derrick Dockery is not offset by their signing of London Fletcher because Dockery qualifys for a 3rd Round pick, but Fletcher only a 4th Round pick. According to Adam, offsets can take place in different rounds, but only in a lower round. Therefore the Fletcher signing by the Redskins offsets the Redskins loss of Duckett rather than the loss of Dockery.

Holdman's annual comp is 1.35 million, which is too low to be in the top 34. Then when looking at the players after Chris Draft, the Holdman loss is offset by the Macklin signing, and then the Wright loss is offset by the Stoutmire signing. If you are right that Stoutmire wasn't signed until Week Two, then he falls out of the Comp calculations, but at only $973,000 per year, Wright's contract is simply too low to qualify for a pick.

So bottom-line, the Redskins look like they will get one Comp Pick ... a 3rd Rounder for the loss of Dockery.

[Boltjolt]

If the Chargers got a 4th round comp pick for Donnie Edwards, id be stoked and the team thinks they may get a 4th but i have big doubts.

I think they get a 5th round CP

EDIT*
Looking again , i THINK thats what you gave us, a 5th but hard to tell with what you wrote.