OT- All Purpose Red Sox Thread

[The Q]

Yeah it was not a Lackey vs. Beltre choice at any point. Lackey was a horrid acquisition but the team will survive it.

Yeah, wasn't Lackey signed first anyway? And Beltre was a somewhat late signing?

Beltre held out a very long time for a 5 year deal and no one gave him one. He actually turned down a 3 year deal from Oakland (3/24) IIRC to sign a 1/10 with Boston.

[ItIsWhatItIs]

My best hope with Lackey is that he misses all of 2012, then in 2013 he recovers somewhere close to his first year in Boston. Still nowhere near his value but at least then they could trade him away after he proves he's healthy. If NYY can get Burnett off their hands with the same deal and an ERA north of 5 in back to back years, someone will take Lackey off Boston's hands.

[The Q]

My best hope with Lackey is that he misses all of 2012, then in 2013 he recovers somewhere close to his first year in Boston. Still nowhere near his value but at least then they could trade him away after he proves he's healthy. If NYY can get Burnett off their hands with the same deal and an ERA north of 5 in back to back years, someone will take Lackey off Boston's hands.

Lackey's FIP was sub 4 his first year in Boston. With better OF defense, maybe he can get his actual ERA under 4 and make it an easy move.

[The Q]

Believe it or not, Lackey was worth $16.4 million his first year in Boston.

It dropped to just over 6 mil last year, but still, that's actually not too far off base from his 2 year compensation (33.25).
Obviously he didn't make it all the way back, but it wasn't as much of a disaster as I thought it was.

[Underdog]

I'm still trying to figure out how they had starters give up 7 runs on back to back days, considering they finally have a real manager now, and the previous one is the only one that ever would've allowed something like that to happen.

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Victory!

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Believe it or not, Lackey was worth $16.4 million his first year in Boston.

It dropped to just over 6 mil last year, but still, that's actually not too far off base from his 2 year compensation (33.25).
Obviously he didn't make it all the way back, but it wasn't as much of a disaster as I thought it was.

That's based on his FIP. Based on his actual ERA, he's been worth 0.6 wins over two years, or roughly $2MM, while being paid $33MM.

[TheSeyMonsta]

or roughly $2MM, while being paid $33MM.

Thats about right....LOL

[Underdog]

That's based on his FIP. Based on his actual ERA, he's been worth 0.6 wins over two years, or roughly $2MM, while being paid $33MM.

Actual ERA is fielding-dependent, though. Lackey seems to be an interesting outlier in some ways, mostly because it's rare for someone to pitch that badly and still be able to accumulate that many innings (e.g., of all the pitchers with worse ERA's than Lackey last year, only one of them pitched even half the number of innings he did). But the fielding-independent numbers say Lackey was 11% below league average last year, and IIRC replacement level is something like 30% below league average, so as bad as he pitched, there's still some inherent value in not having to potentially use some combination of pitchers that are even worse for those 160 innings. It is an interesting juxtaposition to see that pitching like ass for 160 innings generates about the same value as pitching brilliantly for 50 innings ( e.g., Kenley Jansen was worth the same as Lackey last year). Again, I think that's more an outlier based on the sheer volume of bad innings Lackey accumulated last year, than an indictment of how fangraphs derives their valuations.

[Lester]

LOLLL

https://p.twimg.com/AqFLuyvCAAEnMH0.jpg:large

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Actual ERA is fielding-dependent, though. Lackey seems to be an interesting outlier in some ways, mostly because it's rare for someone to pitch that badly and still be able to accumulate that many innings (e.g., of all the pitchers with worse ERA's than Lackey last year, only one of them pitched even half the number of innings he did). But the fielding-independent numbers say Lackey was 11% below league average last year, and IIRC replacement level is something like 30% below league average, so as bad as he pitched, there's still some inherent value in not having to potentially use some combination of pitchers that are even worse for those 160 innings. It is an interesting juxtaposition to see that pitching like ass for 160 innings generates about the same value as pitching brilliantly for 50 innings ( e.g., Kenley Jansen was worth the same as Lackey last year). Again, I think that's more an outlier based on the sheer volume of bad innings Lackey accumulated last year, than an indictment of how fangraphs derives their valuations.

The problem is that Lackey has underperformed his FIP throughout his career and posted high BABIP allowed throughout. And the Red Sox had a terrific defense last year - perhaps they failed him or perhaps his .339 BABIP allowed was really unlucky, but I tend to think he was just tossing up gopher balls all year and was extremely hittable. I do think he pitched a bit better than his ERA in 2010 and showed more value than his true ERA given he ate innings, but in 2011 there's little that could convince me that better luck would've made him a pitcher with an ERA in the 4's.

So while maybe he hasn't been worth only $2MM, he certainly has not been worth even half of what they've paid him in 2010-2011.

[Underdog]

So while maybe he hasn't been worth only $2MM, he certainly has not been worth even half of what they've paid him in 2010-2011.

You won't get any argument from me there. I'm not trying to defend that walking sack of excrement...no matter where the stats peg his value, he's clearly been stealing money from this franchise from jump street. In addition to stealing oxygen from actual worthwhile human beings.

If anything I was only trying to defend fangraphs, and really not so much defend as just point out an interesting quirk because I was likewise initially baffled at how they could've concluded he was a 1.5 win player last year.

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Yeah I understand Fangraph's methodology, but I don't necessarily buy it with Lackey at least. That's why I like to look at both Bref and Fangraphs to compare and see if there is a wide divergence on defense or pitching value.

[Underdog]

What the hell was Francona thinking last night? Sending Bard back out to start the 6th after sitting for 20+ minutes? Then leaving Justin Freaking Thomas in to face a RHH when you had a better RHP warmed up and ready to go, and then after walking the lefty he was supposed to get out, still leaving him in to face yet another RHH and give up another run-scoring hit? Terrible. Only Francona could turn a 2 run deficit into a 5 run deficit that fast.

Wait...he isn't the manager anymore?

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Time for Lester to make Franco....err Valentine look good today.